| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kansas City | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New York Y | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cleveland | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Boston | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Detroit | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tampa Bay | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Houston | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Minnesota | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Texas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| A's | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Toronto | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chicago WS | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Baltimore | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Los Angeles A | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which team will be crowned the American League Champion — the team that wins the American League postseason and advances to the World Series. It matters because it aggregates real-time market expectations about which AL team is most likely to emerge from the playoffs.
The American League Champion is determined each season through the AL postseason, culminating in the American League Championship Series (ALCS). Modern playoff structure (division winners plus wild-card teams and multiple rounds) has increased variability in outcomes compared with earlier eras, and midseason roster moves, injuries, and schedule strength all play major roles. Historical context — such as franchises with repeated postseason success or long droughts — can shape narratives but does not determine any single season's result.
Market prices reflect the collective view of participants given current information and will change as news arrives (injuries, trades, postseason results). Use them as a real-time signal of perceived chances and how those perceptions evolve, not as fixed or final determinations.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; the market will close at the time specified by KALSHI on the market page or in their official notifications, often before the start of decisive postseason games used for settlement.
Each of the 15 outcomes corresponds to one of the 15 American League teams; the winning outcome will be the team officially recognized as the American League Champion by Major League Baseball.
Playoff format determines seeding, number of rounds, and which teams qualify; wild-card spots, short series lengths, and matchup pairings can all create paths that favor some teams over others even if regular-season records differ.
Significant roster changes typically cause rapid market adjustments as participants reassess a team's postseason prospects; consider whether the change affects pitching depth, lineup balance, or playoff matchups when evaluating those moves.
KALSHI will settle the market based on the team officially declared the American League Champion by Major League Baseball (the winner of the ALCS) once that result is confirmed and any relevant league certifications are complete.