| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ 1+ teams | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 2+ teams | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3+ teams | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4 teams | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This market asks how many teams seeded #2 will survive to the Round of 8 (the tournament stage often called the Elite Eight). It matters because seed-based expectations are a common way to quantify upset risk and bracket dynamics in single-elimination tournaments.
In seeded single-elimination tournaments, #2 seeds are typically among the strongest teams in their region and are expected to advance deep, but single-elimination structure and regional matchups produce frequent variance and occasional upsets. Historical tournament play shows a mix of predictable outcomes and surprises, so markets on seed advancement capture both underlying team strength and game-to-game uncertainty.
Market prices reflect the aggregated views of participants about the chances of different counts of #2 seeds reaching the Round of 8 and will move as new information (injuries, matchups, results) arrives. Use prices as a dynamic signal of market sentiment rather than a fixed forecast; they update up until market close and final resolution.
In a standard four-region seeded bracket there are four teams assigned the #2 seed, but tournament formats vary; check the specific tournament bracket released by the organizers to confirm the number of #2 seeds that will be tracked for this market.
Resolution will occur once the field for the Round of 8 is finalized; the market will use the official game results as published by the tournament organizers to determine which #2 seeds have advanced. The contract’s official close time is listed as TBD, so traders should monitor the event page for the announced resolution schedule.
Settlement will be based on the official seed designations assigned by the tournament at bracket release and any official changes noted by the event’s designated authority; if the tournament implements reseeding or reclassification, the market’s posted rules (or the exchange’s resolution policy) specify which version is authoritative.
Key developments include injury reports and availability of starters, surprising performances by underseeded opponents, sudden coaching changes or suspensions, and bad matchup dynamics revealed after watching game tape or early-round results; each can materially alter expectations between rounds.
Yes—because the market outcome is the total number of #2 seeds that remain in the Round of 8 across the whole bracket, upsets in any region that eliminate a #2 seed reduce that count; conversely, upsets that eliminate non-#2 teams do not increase the number of advancing #2 seeds but can change the difficulty of remaining paths for surviving #2 seeds.