| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #16 seed to win a game in the Round of 64 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether any team seeded #16 will win a game in the Round of 64 of the NCAA tournament. It matters because a #16 win is a notable upset that can alter tournament narratives and payout outcomes for traders.
Historically, #16 seeds are heavy underdogs against top seeds in the Round of 64, with only a few high-profile upsets changing expectations and strategy around March tournament play. Because seeds are assigned based on regular-season and conference-tournament performance, matchup quality and single-game variance are central to whether a #16 pulls off a victory.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s collective assessment of the likelihood of a #16 winning in the Round of 64 and will move as new information (injuries, lineup changes, matchup metrics) becomes available. Use prices to gauge market sentiment rather than as definitive predictions of a single game.
Any officially recorded win by a team seeded #16 in a Round of 64 matchup counts for settlement; that includes wins by teams that earned a #16 slot via a play-in and any win recorded in regulation or overtime as listed in the official tournament results.
The market resolves after the completion and official reporting of all Round of 64 games for the tournament year in question; resolution timing follows the tournament’s official results and may be subject to platform settlement timing.
Only wins that occur in games officially designated as Round of 64 contests by the tournament organizers count; a play-in victory alone does not satisfy this market unless the team subsequently wins its Round of 64 game as a recognized #16.
Settlement follows the official tournament ruling: if the organizer records a forfeit as a win for the #16, that is typically what is used; if a game is cancelled or declared void with no official result, the platform’s extraordinary-event and settlement rules will determine whether the market is voided or adjusted.
Monitor official starting lineups and late injury reports, coaching news, matchup statistics (tempo, efficiency margins), recent form from conference tournaments, travel/rest updates, and any venue or weather issues that could influence performance.