| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #15 or #16 seed to win a game in the Round of 64 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether at least one #15 or #16 seed will win a game in the Round of 64 of the NCAA tournament. It matters because such wins are the most prominent upsets in the tournament and can have large effects on brackets and betting markets.
Round of 64 games are the first full round of the main 64-team NCAA bracket (not the First Four play-in games). Historically, #16 wins over #1s are exceedingly rare but possible (the first men's #16 over #1 upset is a widely cited landmark), while #15 upsets occur more frequently and are a perennial source of bracket surprises. Each tournament’s field and matchups produce different upset potential year to year.
Market prices reflect the aggregated beliefs of traders about whether a #15 or #16 seed will win at least one Round of 64 game and will move as new information (injuries, starting lineups, late odds, etc.) becomes available. Treat prices as a consensus signal and not as fixed predictions — they update in real time as conditions change.
The market resolves based on official NCAA results for the Round of 64: if at least one team assigned a #15 or #16 seed wins its Round of 64 game, the outcome is recorded as occurring; otherwise it is recorded as not occurring. Resolution follows the tournament’s official game results and any platform-specific settlement rules.
Only the main-field first-round games of the 64-team bracket count. First Four play-in games do not count as Round of 64 games themselves, although the team that advances from a play-in and then wins in the Round of 64 would be counted.
Seed designations are taken from the official NCAA bracket seeding at the time the tournament field is set. Any team listed as a #15 or #16 seed on that official bracket is eligible for consideration in this market.
No. This market is concerned with whether at least one #15 or #16 seed wins a Round of 64 game. Multiple such wins still result in the same binary settlement: the condition is met.
Late-breaking injuries or suspensions to key players, announced changes to starting lineups, last-minute travel or illness issues, and official reports about court conditions or scheduling changes are the most likely events to shift market prices shortly before Round of 64 tipoff.