| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 98% | 88¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Arizona | 12% | 0¢ | 10¢ | — | $686 | Trade → |
| Michigan | 6% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $364 | Trade → |
| Houston | 6% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $109 | Trade → |
| Iowa St. | 1% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $94 | Trade → |
This market asks which team will be listed as the #1 team in the Associated Press College Basketball Top 25 for week 18. Week 18 is late in the regular season and captures voter assessments immediately before conference tournaments and NCAA tournament seeding discussions.
The AP Top 25 is a long-running media poll compiled from ballots cast by a national panel of sports writers and broadcasters; it is updated weekly during the season and is widely cited as a snapshot of national perception. Week 18 typically reflects teams' body of work through most of the regular season and any late-season results, but it is distinct from NFL/college selection metrics such as the NCAA NET, which the selection committee uses for tournament seeding.
Market odds here reflect the collective market expectation about which team voters will place at #1 in the AP's week 18 poll; they move as new information arrives and should be used alongside on-court results, injuries, and poll methodology rather than as definitive forecasts.
Resolution will follow the official Associated Press release of the AP Top 25 for week 18; the AP's published list for that week is the authoritative source used to determine the #1 team. The market's close time is listed as TBD on the contract page.
This market has five discrete outcome slots corresponding to the teams named on the contract page. If the AP's official week 18 #1 is not among those listed outcomes, the exchange's published resolution policy applies; consult the contract details or exchange rules for how unmatched results are handled (e.g., alternate settlement procedures or refunds).
The AP poll is voted on by a national panel of sports writers and broadcasters. Voters typically weigh recent results, head-to-head matchups, strength of schedule, injuries and player availability, and overall season accomplishment when casting late-season ballots.
Being AP #1 is an indicator of national perception and can shape narrative, but the NCAA selection committee uses objective metrics (NET, quadrant wins, strength of schedule) and other data when seeding. AP #1 may correlate with favorable seeding but is not a direct determinant of official seeding or tournament outcomes.
Key drivers include late-season head-to-head games between top teams, upset losses, performance in conference tournaments, sudden injuries or returns of star players, and any major disciplinary or roster changes that affect team strength.