| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monica | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Jack Harlow's song "Monica" will debut at #1 on the chart specified by the contract. A #1 debut is a high-profile commercial milestone that signals strong first-week consumption and promotional impact.
Jack Harlow is a mainstream hip-hop artist with prior top-charting singles and significant streaming presence; a #1 debut requires concentrated performance in the song's first eligible tracking week. Modern singles charts combine streaming, digital sales, and radio activity, so first-week strategy and timing are critical to whether a song can enter at the top spot.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about whether the contract's definition of a #1 debut will be met; prices update as new streaming, sales, radio, and release-timing information becomes available.
It means the song appears at number one on the specific singles chart named by the contract in its first eligible chart week (the song's first official week on that chart). Check the contract text to confirm which chart and the contract's definition of "debut" and the applicable tracking week.
The outcome is determined by the chart specified in the market contract. If the contract does not explicitly name a chart, consult the market rules or settlement source listed on the event page to see which authoritative chart will be used.
Settlement generally occurs after the publishing of the official chart that covers the song's first eligible tracking week; the exact settlement timing follows the market's settlement rules and the chart publisher's publication schedule. Refer to the contract for the definitive settlement timing and any required confirmation sources.
The primary metrics are first-week on-demand and programmed audio/video streams, paid and free digital sales, and radio audience impressions; editorial and algorithmic playlist placements and any promotional bundles also materially affect first-week totals.
Major releases by other artists in the same tracking period can split streaming and sales attention and absorb radio adds, making it harder to reach the top; artists and labels often time releases to avoid direct competition for first-week dominance.