| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Francesca Albanese | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Narges Mohammadi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| European Union | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Elon Musk | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| International Court of Justice (ICJ) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Minneapolis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which named option will be declared the Nobel Peace Prize winner and aggregates trader expectations about the Committee's choice. It matters because collective market prices can reflect public information, campaign momentum, and reactions to major events ahead of the official announcement.
The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee; winners are traditionally announced in October and the prize is presented in December, although exact dates can vary by year. Historically the Committee has alternated between individuals and organizations and sometimes makes choices that reflect topical international crises, long-running peace processes, human-rights advocacy, or thematic statements about global challenges.
Market odds represent the relative conviction of traders about each listed outcome based on available information and will change as news arrives; they are a real-time snapshot of sentiment rather than a definitive forecast.
Closing time is set by the market host and is listed on the market page; it may close before, at, or shortly after the Committee's public announcement. Check the market listing for the official close time because it governs how long trading remains possible.
The market is resolved according to the official Nobel Committee announcement as published by the Norwegian Nobel Committee or other authoritative sources specified in the market rules. The outcome listed on the market that matches the Committee's declaration is designated the winner per the platform's resolution policy.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific nominee or named option as defined when the market was created. Outcomes are typically fixed at creation; adding or removing outcomes after launch depends on the platform's rules and is uncommon, so consult the market description for the definitive list.
Look at past awards for signals such as the Committee's appetite for symbolic selections, preference for organizations or individuals, and responses to contemporary geopolitical issues. Those patterns inform expectations but do not guarantee future decisions, so combine historical context with current events and official signals.
Resolution depends on the market's predefined rules: some markets specify how joint awards are handled (e.g., multiple outcomes may pay out if listed), while others include a 'no award' outcome or state that the market will follow the official wording. Review the market's resolution policy and contact the platform's support for clarity on exceptional outcomes.