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Entertainment OPEN

Who will release a new song this year?

📊 $0 traded 🏦 Source: Kalshi
Total Volume
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Open Interest
0
Active Markets
53
Markets
120

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All Outcomes (120)
Outcome Probability Yes Bid Yes Ask 24h Change Volume
Drake 0%
$0 Resolved
Taylor Swift 0%
$0 Trade →
Bad Bunny 0%
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The Weeknd 0%
$0 Trade →
Justin Bieber 0%
$0 Trade →
Ariana Grande 0%
$0 Trade →
Ed Sheeran 0%
$0 Trade →
Travis Scott 0%
$0 Resolved
Eminem 0%
$0 Trade →
Kanye West 0%
$0 Resolved
Rihanna 0%
$0 Trade →
Billie Eilish 0%
$0 Trade →
Kendrick Lamar 0%
$0 Trade →
Post Malone 0%
$0 Trade →
Future 0%
$0 Trade →
BTS 0%
$0 Resolved
J Balvin 0%
$0 Resolved
Ozuna 0%
$0 Resolved
Bruno Mars 0%
$0 Resolved
Coldplay 0%
$0 Trade →
Nicki Minaj 0%
$0 Trade →
Chris Brown 0%
$0 Trade →
Dua Lipa 0%
$0 Trade →
David Guetta 0%
$0 Resolved
Lana Del Rey 0%
$0 Resolved
21 Savage 0%
$0 Trade →
Lil Wayne 0%
$0 Resolved
SZA 0%
$0 Resolved
KAROL G 0%
$0 Resolved
Lady Gaga 0%
$0 Resolved
Maroon 5 0%
$0 Resolved
Rauw Alejandro 0%
$0 Resolved
Beyoncé 0%
$0 Trade →
Lil Uzi Vert 0%
$0 Trade →
Sia 0%
$0 Resolved
Khalid 0%
$0 Resolved
Linkin Park 0%
$0 Trade →
Anuel AA 0%
$0 Resolved
Lil Baby 0%
$0 Resolved
Doja Cat 0%
$0 Trade →
Shawn Mendes 0%
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Sam Smith 0%
$0 Trade →
Calvin Harris 0%
$0 Resolved
Quavo 0%
$0 Resolved
Jason Derulo 0%
$0 Resolved
USHER 0%
$0 Resolved
Justin Timberlake 0%
$0 Trade →
J. Cole 0%
$0 Resolved
Swae Lee 0%
$0 Resolved
Daft Punk 0%
$0 Trade →
Tate McRae 0%
$0 Trade →
BLACKPINK 0%
$0 Resolved
Young Thug 0%
$0 Resolved
Big Sean 0%
$0 Trade →
Migos 0%
$0 Trade →
Trippie Redd 0%
$0 Resolved
Polo G 0%
$0 Resolved
Tyga 0%
$0 Resolved
Kodak Black 0%
$0 Resolved
Offset 0%
$0 Resolved
2 Chainz 0%
$0 Resolved
Bebe Rexha 0%
$0 Resolved
Fall Out Boy 0%
$0 Trade →
Lewis Capaldi 0%
$0 Resolved
Roddy Ricch 0%
$0 Trade →
Daniel Caesar 0%
$0 Trade →
YoungBoy Never Broke Again 0%
$0 Resolved
Camilo 0%
$0 Trade →
NF 0%
$0 Trade →
Kali Uchis 0%
$0 Resolved
Charlie Puth 0%
$0 Resolved
Bryson Tiller 0%
$0 Resolved
Stray Kids 0%
$0 Trade →
Luke Combs 0%
$0 Resolved
Zach Bryan 0%
$0 Resolved
Lil Nas X 0%
$0 Trade →
Don Toliver 0%
$0 Resolved
PARTYNEXTDOOR 0%
$0 Trade →
John Mayer 0%
$0 Trade →
Megan Thee Stallion 0%
$0 Resolved
Mariah Carey 0%
$0 Trade →
Childish Gambino 0%
$0 Trade →
Alex Warren 0%
$0 Resolved
Pharrell Williams 0%
$0 Resolved
Chappell Roan 0%
$0 Trade →
Benson Boone 0%
$0 Trade →
PinkPantheress 0%
$0 Trade →
Kid Cudi 0%
$0 Resolved
Ice Spice 0%
$0 Trade →
Sabrina Carpenter 0%
$0 Resolved
ROSALÍA 0%
$0 Resolved
Tyla 0%
$0 Resolved
Doechii 0%
$0 Resolved
Logic 0%
$0 Resolved
mgk 0%
$0 Resolved
Olivia Dean 0%
$0 Trade →
The Marías 0%
$0 Trade →
The Kid LAROI 0%
$0 Resolved
Addison Rae 0%
$0 Trade →
Lola Young 0%
$0 Trade →
Fred again.. 0%
$0 Resolved
Gracie Abrams 0%
$0 Trade →
Shaboozey 0%
$0 Resolved
Frank Ocean 0%
$0 Trade →
Olivia Rodrigo 0%
$0 Resolved
Joji 0%
$0 Resolved
SIENNA SPIRO 0%
$0 Resolved
Lil Yachty 0%
$0 Resolved
Geese 0%
$0 Trade →
Clairo 0%
$0 Trade →
Zara Larsson 0%
$0 Trade →
Grimes 0%
$0 Trade →
Charli xcx 0%
$0 Resolved
Leon Thomas 0%
$0 Resolved
Harry Styles 0%
$0 Resolved
sombr 0%
$0 Resolved
Ella Langley 0%
$0 Resolved
EsDeeKid 0%
$0 Resolved
KATSEYE 0%
$0 Resolved
Tyler, The Creator 0%
$0 Resolved

About This Market

This market asks which named artist will release a new song within the resolution window and matters because it aggregates crowd expectations about upcoming releases in the music industry. Traders use it to express opinions about artists' likelihood of releasing new material and to profit from changing information.

Release timing in popular music is driven by album cycles, label strategies, and surprise-drop practices; some artists follow predictable annual patterns while others release sporadically. Features, collaborations, soundtrack contributions, and independent singles all shape the landscape and can cause rapid shifts in market beliefs. Historical patterns show that touring schedules, social-media teases, and label announcements are frequent precursors to releases.

Market prices reflect the aggregated expectation that a given named outcome will meet the event's release criteria by the market's resolution rules; interpret prices as the crowd's consensus signal, not a guaranteed outcome.

Key Factors

Frequently Asked Questions

How does this market define 'release a new song this year' for an artist outcome?

Resolution typically requires an official, commercially distributed new song attributed to the named artist within the market's stated time window; consult the market's rules for precise definitions (for example whether live-only performances, unlisted leaks, or reissues count).

Does a song where the artist is only a featured performer count toward that artist's outcome?

Whether a feature counts depends on the market's outcome definitions; some markets count any credited appearance while others require the artist to be the primary or lead artist, so check the event's specific rules before trading.

If an artist releases multiple songs in the year, how does that affect their outcome?

Most outcomes are binary per artist: a single qualifying release is sufficient to meet the outcome and additional releases do not change an already-resolved outcome, per the market's resolution criteria.

What does 'Closes: TBD' mean for the trading timeline and resolution?

'Closes: TBD' means the market has not announced a final trading cutoff; platforms typically set a cutoff before the resolution date or end of the year and will post updates—monitor official platform notices for closure and settlement timing.

What historical signals should traders track to anticipate which artist will release a new song this year?

Watch for studio updates and social-media teasers, registration of songs with rights organizations, announced collaborations or soundtrack placements, label release calendars, and shifts in touring that provide studio time—these have historically preceded public releases.

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