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Entertainment OPEN

Who will release a new song this year?

📊 $0 traded 🏦 Source: Kalshi
Total Volume
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Open Interest
0
Active Markets
68
Markets
120

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All Outcomes (120)
Outcome Probability Yes Bid Yes Ask 24h Change Volume
Drake 0%
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Taylor Swift 0%
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Bad Bunny 0%
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The Weeknd 0%
$0 Trade →
Justin Bieber 0%
$0 Trade →
Ariana Grande 0%
$0 Trade →
Ed Sheeran 0%
$0 Trade →
Travis Scott 0%
$0 Resolved
Eminem 0%
$0 Trade →
Kanye West 0%
$0 Resolved
Rihanna 0%
$0 Trade →
Billie Eilish 0%
$0 Trade →
Kendrick Lamar 0%
$0 Trade →
Post Malone 0%
$0 Trade →
Future 0%
$0 Trade →
BTS 0%
$0 Resolved
J Balvin 0%
$0 Resolved
Ozuna 0%
$0 Resolved
Bruno Mars 0%
$0 Resolved
Coldplay 0%
$0 Trade →
Nicki Minaj 0%
$0 Trade →
Chris Brown 0%
$0 Trade →
Dua Lipa 0%
$0 Trade →
David Guetta 0%
$0 Resolved
Lana Del Rey 0%
$0 Resolved
Lil Wayne 0%
$0 Resolved
21 Savage 0%
$0 Trade →
Rauw Alejandro 0%
$0 Resolved
SZA 0%
$0 Resolved
KAROL G 0%
$0 Trade →
Khalid 0%
$0 Resolved
Anuel AA 0%
$0 Resolved
Lady Gaga 0%
$0 Resolved
Lil Baby 0%
$0 Resolved
Maroon 5 0%
$0 Trade →
Beyoncé 0%
$0 Trade →
Calvin Harris 0%
$0 Resolved
Lil Uzi Vert 0%
$0 Trade →
Sia 0%
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J. Cole 0%
$0 Resolved
Linkin Park 0%
$0 Trade →
Doja Cat 0%
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Shawn Mendes 0%
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Young Thug 0%
$0 Resolved
Sam Smith 0%
$0 Trade →
Quavo 0%
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Trippie Redd 0%
$0 Resolved
Tyga 0%
$0 Resolved
Jason Derulo 0%
$0 Resolved
USHER 0%
$0 Trade →
Kodak Black 0%
$0 Resolved
Justin Timberlake 0%
$0 Trade →
Bebe Rexha 0%
$0 Resolved
Swae Lee 0%
$0 Resolved
YoungBoy Never Broke Again 0%
$0 Resolved
BLACKPINK 0%
$0 Resolved
Daft Punk 0%
$0 Trade →
Kali Uchis 0%
$0 Resolved
Charlie Puth 0%
$0 Resolved
Luke Combs 0%
$0 Resolved
Tate McRae 0%
$0 Trade →
Big Sean 0%
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Zach Bryan 0%
$0 Resolved
Migos 0%
$0 Trade →
Don Toliver 0%
$0 Resolved
Polo G 0%
$0 Resolved
Offset 0%
$0 Resolved
2 Chainz 0%
$0 Trade →
Fall Out Boy 0%
$0 Trade →
Lewis Capaldi 0%
$0 Trade →
Pharrell Williams 0%
$0 Resolved
Roddy Ricch 0%
$0 Trade →
Daniel Caesar 0%
$0 Trade →
Camilo 0%
$0 Trade →
NF 0%
$0 Trade →
Kid Cudi 0%
$0 Resolved
Bryson Tiller 0%
$0 Resolved
Stray Kids 0%
$0 Trade →
Lil Nas X 0%
$0 Trade →
Logic 0%
$0 Resolved
PARTYNEXTDOOR 0%
$0 Trade →
John Mayer 0%
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The Kid LAROI 0%
$0 Resolved
ROSALÍA 0%
$0 Resolved
Megan Thee Stallion 0%
$0 Trade →
mgk 0%
$0 Resolved
Mariah Carey 0%
$0 Trade →
Childish Gambino 0%
$0 Trade →
Fred again.. 0%
$0 Resolved
Joji 0%
$0 Resolved
Alex Warren 0%
$0 Resolved
Lil Yachty 0%
$0 Resolved
Chappell Roan 0%
$0 Trade →
Benson Boone 0%
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PinkPantheress 0%
$0 Trade →
Ice Spice 0%
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Sabrina Carpenter 0%
$0 Trade →
Charli xcx 0%
$0 Resolved
Tyla 0%
$0 Trade →
Doechii 0%
$0 Trade →
Olivia Dean 0%
$0 Trade →
Leon Thomas 0%
$0 Resolved
The Marías 0%
$0 Trade →
Addison Rae 0%
$0 Trade →
Lola Young 0%
$0 Trade →
sombr 0%
$0 Resolved
Gracie Abrams 0%
$0 Trade →
Shaboozey 0%
$0 Trade →
Frank Ocean 0%
$0 Trade →
Olivia Rodrigo 0%
$0 Trade →
Harry Styles 0%
$0 Resolved
SIENNA SPIRO 0%
$0 Trade →
Geese 0%
$0 Trade →
Clairo 0%
$0 Trade →
Zara Larsson 0%
$0 Trade →
Grimes 0%
$0 Trade →
Ella Langley 0%
$0 Resolved
EsDeeKid 0%
$0 Resolved
KATSEYE 0%
$0 Resolved
Tyler, The Creator 0%
$0 Resolved

About This Market

This market asks which named artist will release a new song within the resolution window and matters because it aggregates crowd expectations about upcoming releases in the music industry. Traders use it to express opinions about artists' likelihood of releasing new material and to profit from changing information.

Release timing in popular music is driven by album cycles, label strategies, and surprise-drop practices; some artists follow predictable annual patterns while others release sporadically. Features, collaborations, soundtrack contributions, and independent singles all shape the landscape and can cause rapid shifts in market beliefs. Historical patterns show that touring schedules, social-media teases, and label announcements are frequent precursors to releases.

Market prices reflect the aggregated expectation that a given named outcome will meet the event's release criteria by the market's resolution rules; interpret prices as the crowd's consensus signal, not a guaranteed outcome.

Key Factors

Frequently Asked Questions

How does this market define 'release a new song this year' for an artist outcome?

Resolution typically requires an official, commercially distributed new song attributed to the named artist within the market's stated time window; consult the market's rules for precise definitions (for example whether live-only performances, unlisted leaks, or reissues count).

Does a song where the artist is only a featured performer count toward that artist's outcome?

Whether a feature counts depends on the market's outcome definitions; some markets count any credited appearance while others require the artist to be the primary or lead artist, so check the event's specific rules before trading.

If an artist releases multiple songs in the year, how does that affect their outcome?

Most outcomes are binary per artist: a single qualifying release is sufficient to meet the outcome and additional releases do not change an already-resolved outcome, per the market's resolution criteria.

What does 'Closes: TBD' mean for the trading timeline and resolution?

'Closes: TBD' means the market has not announced a final trading cutoff; platforms typically set a cutoff before the resolution date or end of the year and will post updates—monitor official platform notices for closure and settlement timing.

What historical signals should traders track to anticipate which artist will release a new song this year?

Watch for studio updates and social-media teasers, registration of songs with rights organizations, announced collaborations or soundtrack placements, label release calendars, and shifts in touring that provide studio time—these have historically preceded public releases.

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