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Entertainment OPEN

Who will have a #1 album this year?

📊 $0 traded 🏦 Source: Kalshi
Total Volume
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Open Interest
0
Active Markets
108
Markets
118

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All Outcomes (118)
Outcome Probability Yes Bid Yes Ask 24h Change Volume
Drake 0%
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Bad Bunny 0%
$0 Resolved
Taylor Swift 0%
$0 Resolved
The Weeknd 0%
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Justin Bieber 0%
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Ariana Grande 0%
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Ed Sheeran 0%
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Travis Scott 0%
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Eminem 0%
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Kanye West / Ye 0%
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Rihanna 0%
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Billie Eilish 0%
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Kendrick Lamar 0%
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Post Malone 0%
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J Balvin 0%
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Future 0%
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Bruno Mars 0%
$0 Resolved
BTS 0%
$0 Resolved
Ozuna 0%
$0 Trade →
Coldplay 0%
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Nicki Minaj 0%
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Chris Brown 0%
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Dua Lipa 0%
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David Guetta 0%
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Lana Del Rey 0%
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Lil Wayne 0%
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21 Savage 0%
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Rauw Alejandro 0%
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Anuel AA 0%
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SZA 0%
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KAROL G 0%
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Khalid 0%
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Lady Gaga 0%
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Lil Baby 0%
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Maroon 5 0%
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Beyoncé 0%
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Calvin Harris 0%
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Lil Uzi Vert 0%
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J. Cole 0%
$0 Resolved
Sia 0%
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Young Thug 0%
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Linkin Park 0%
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Doja Cat 0%
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Shawn Mendes 0%
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Sam Smith 0%
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Quavo 0%
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Trippie Redd 0%
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YoungBoy Never Broke Again 0%
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Tyga 0%
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Lil Peep 0%
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Charlie Puth 0%
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Luke Combs 0%
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Zach Bryan 0%
$0 Resolved
Jason Derulo 0%
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USHER 0%
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Kodak Black 0%
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Justin Timberlake 0%
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Bebe Rexha 0%
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Swae Lee 0%
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BLACKPINK 0%
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Kali Uchis 0%
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Don Toliver 0%
$0 Resolved
Daft Punk 0%
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Tate McRae 0%
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Big Sean 0%
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Migos 0%
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Polo G 0%
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Pharrell Williams 0%
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The Kid LAROI 0%
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Kid Cudi 0%
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Offset 0%
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2 Chainz 0%
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Fall Out Boy 0%
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Lewis Capaldi 0%
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Joji 0%
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Roddy Ricch 0%
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Daniel Caesar 0%
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Camilo 0%
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NF 0%
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Bryson Tiller 0%
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Stray Kids 0%
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Logic 0%
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Charli xcx 0%
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Lil Nas X 0%
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PARTYNEXTDOOR 0%
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John Mayer 0%
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ROSALÍA 0%
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Megan Thee Stallion 0%
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mgk 0%
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Mariah Carey 0%
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Childish Gambino 0%
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Lil Yachty 0%
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Fred again.. 0%
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Alex Warren 0%
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Chappell Roan 0%
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Benson Boone 0%
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PinkPantheress 0%
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Ice Spice 0%
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Sabrina Carpenter 0%
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Tyla 0%
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Doechii 0%
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Olivia Dean 0%
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Leon Thomas 0%
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sombr 0%
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KATSEYE 0%
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The Marías 0%
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Addison Rae 0%
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Lola Young 0%
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Ella Langley 0%
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Gracie Abrams 0%
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Shaboozey 0%
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Frank Ocean 0%
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A$AP Rocky 0%
$0 Resolved
Harry Styles 0%
$0 Resolved
Noah Kahan 0%
$0 Trade →
Megan Moroney 0%
$0 Resolved
Selena Gomez 0%
$0 Trade →
Olivia Rodrigo 0%
$0 Trade →

About This Market

This market asks which named artist will score a #1 album during the calendar year. It matters because outcomes aggregate public expectations about release timing, commercial reach, and promotional momentum in the music industry.

Chart-topping albums are determined by official national album charts that combine streaming, digital and physical sales plus track-equivalent units; different territories use different chart methodologies. Historically, release timing (holiday windows, award season, tour schedules), surprise drops, and viral moments have driven sudden changes in who reaches #1. The entry list and market liquidity reflect which artists traders consider realistic contenders.

Market prices reflect the collective view of how likely each listed artist is to reach #1 given current information and change as new news arrives. Use prices as a real-time signal of market expectations, not as a definitive forecast.

Key Factors

Frequently Asked Questions

What qualifies as a '#1 album' for this market — which chart and timeframe determine the winner?

The market settles based on the official chart and timeframe specified in the market rules on the event page; if the page does not explicitly name a chart, check the market description or settlement clause for the authoritative source and the exact start/end dates that define 'this year.'

When does the market close and when will winners be settled?

The event lists a closing time as TBD; settlement typically occurs after the market's close or after the official chart has published results covering the market's timeframe. See the market page for any platform-specific announcement about the closing and settlement schedule.

There are 115 outcomes listed — can additional artists be added or removed during the market?

Outcome additions or removals depend on the platform and on pre-set rules for this market; organizers may add outcomes before the market closes, but changes and their timing will be noted on the event page. Always check the market log or update feed for any modifications.

If an album credits multiple artists (a collaboration or a soundtrack), how does the market decide which listed outcome wins?

Settlement follows the official chart crediting: the outcome whose name exactly matches the credited artist(s) on the published chart entry wins. If the market lists distinct collaborative outcomes, the credited name on the chart determines which specific outcome is eligible.

Do reissues, deluxe editions, or posthumous releases count toward an artist's chance to reach #1 in this market?

Yes — if the reissue, deluxe edition, or posthumous release is credited to the artist on the official chart and the charting occurs within the market's defined timeframe, it counts for settlement. Check the market's adjudication rules for any special exceptions.

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