| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Mottley | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rebeca Grynspan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alicia Bárcena | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Amina J. Mohammed | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michelle Bachelet | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rafael Grossi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which individual will become the next UN Secretary-General and matters because the Secretary‑General shapes the UN’s agenda, institutional priorities, and diplomatic responses to global crises.
Selection of a UN Secretary‑General follows an informal, decades‑old practice in which the Security Council conducts consultations and recommends a single candidate to the General Assembly for appointment. Regional grouping, member‑state endorsements, and the formal positions of the five permanent Security Council members are central to the process; candidates often emerge through behind‑the‑scenes diplomacy rather than a public election.
Market odds reflect traders’ collective assessment of which named candidate is most likely to secure the Security Council recommendation and subsequent General Assembly appointment; they respond to news about endorsements, withdrawals, veto signals, and formal votes.
The market resolves based on the individual formally appointed by the United Nations General Assembly following the Security Council’s recommendation; the official UN announcement and documented appointment are used as the resolution trigger.
The Security Council conducts consultations and issues a recommendation, typically nominating a single candidate; because any of the five permanent members can veto a candidate, their positions are often decisive for which name advances to the General Assembly.
A lack of Security Council consensus generally prolongs the selection and keeps the market unsettled; traders should watch for formal Security Council votes, straw polls, and signs of compromise — the market reflects expectations about which candidate will ultimately secure the Council’s recommendation and Assembly appointment.
If the official appointee is not among the named outcomes, resolution depends on the market’s stated rules: some markets include an 'Other' outcome, others consult the platform’s settlement policy. Check the event rules on the trading platform to see how unlisted winners are resolved.
Key milestones are candidate declarations or withdrawals, public endorsements or veto threats from permanent Security Council members, Security Council straw polls and formal recommendation, and the General Assembly appointment. Major diplomatic meetings and breaking international crises can also shift support quickly.