| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jack Dorsey | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Grok | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nikita Bier | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jimmy Donaldson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sam Altman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mahmoud Reza Banki | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sriram Krishnan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which individual will be named as the next CEO of X; that choice matters because a CEO appointment can change company strategy, governance, and stakeholder outcomes.
The company X is at a leadership transition point, which can follow internal promotion, an external hire, an interim appointment, or corporate change such as a sale. Historical CEO changes at comparable companies often trigger shifts in priorities (e.g., cost-cutting, growth focus, M&A activity) and can affect investor and employee expectations.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants about which listed outcome will be the official announcement; prices update as new information, leaks, board decisions, or filings arrive and should be read as a real-time signal rather than a fixed prediction.
Each outcome corresponds to the named candidates or categorical options listed on the market page (for example, specific individuals and possibly an 'Other' or 'No appointment' option); the market’s outcome labels on KALSHI define what each option means.
Close timing is listed as TBD; resolution typically follows the exchange’s stated resolution source and standard—most often the company’s official public announcement or a regulatory filing confirming the appointment—so check the market description for the exact resolution rule.
Interim appointments count only if the market explicitly lists an 'Interim' outcome or the rules state that such an appointment resolves the contract; otherwise the market usually requires the permanent appointment as defined in the market’s resolution criteria.
Board meeting notices, leaked shortlist names, candidate withdrawals, agreement announcements, regulatory filings (e.g., proxy statements), and acquisition-related disclosures are the primary catalysts that cause rapid price movements.
Settlement depends on the market’s stated contingency and the exchange’s policy: some contracts include 'no appointment' outcomes, others may be canceled or settled as per platform rules—consult the market page and KALSHI’s resolution and cancellation policies for specifics.