| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opalite | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Man I Need | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| DtMF | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| BAILE INoLVIDABLE | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Golden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Back to Friends | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| The Fate of Ophelia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stateside + Zara Larsson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Aperture | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Risk it All | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Choosin' Texas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Elizabeth Taylor | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| American Girls | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ I Just Might | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Porch Light | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ordinary | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which specific songs will hold the #1 position on the Billboard Hot 100 during March. It matters because weekly #1 placements reflect commercial momentum, promotional impact, and shifting listener behavior across streaming, sales, and radio.
The Billboard Hot 100 is compiled weekly from a blend of streaming activity, digital and physical sales, and radio airplay; its weekly nature and data‑reporting cycle create short windows where new releases or viral moments can claim the top spot. March sits inside the music industry’s release and promotion calendar — it can be influenced by late‑winter award shows, festival announcements, spring promotional pushes, and social‑media trends that arise around that time.
Market odds express the collective expectations of traders about which songs are most likely to reach #1 given available information and will update as new data, releases, and events arrive. Treat odds as a real‑time summary of competing signals (sales, streaming, radio, promotion), not as fixed predictions.
Resolution depends on the market’s stated rules, but chart timing is determined by Billboard’s weekly Hot 100 issue dates and their underlying tracking week (typically a Friday–Thursday tracking period with a later issue date). Check the event’s resolution text to see whether it uses Billboard issue dates that fall in March or another specific definition.
This market lists 13 distinct song outcomes; each outcome corresponds to an individual song nominated in the market. Consult the market page to see whether multiple outcomes can resolve as winners (e.g., if multiple songs hit #1 during March) or if the market is structured differently.
Most markets that list candidate songs will resolve an outcome as successful if that song appears at #1 on any chart date covered by the market’s definition of March. Exact payout/resolution conventions are in the market’s rules, so confirm whether the market treats repeated weeks differently.
Surprise single or remix drops, viral TikTok moments or memes, breakout placements on large editorial playlists, or high‑visibility live performances (award shows, late‑night TV, festivals) can produce sudden spikes in consumption that change the #1 slot during a chart week.
Use Billboard’s official Hot 100 page and press releases for the authoritative weekly #1 listings, and consult this KALSHI market’s resolution text and updates for the exact criteria and timing the market will use to determine winners.