| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Choosin' Texas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Porch Light | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stateside + Zara Larsson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| AMERICAN GIRLS | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Elizabeth Taylor | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Man I Need | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Risk it All | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ SWIM | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Opalite | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Babydoll | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| DtMF | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Drop Dead | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Beauty and a Beat | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which songs will hold the #1 position on the Billboard Hot 100 during the calendar month of April. Tracking likely winners is useful because the Hot 100 #1 is a key indicator of commercial success and cultural impact in popular music.
The Billboard Hot 100 ranks songs using a mix of streaming, radio airplay, and sales; chart positions are updated weekly and dated by Billboard. April can be shaped by seasonal release strategies, major album rollouts, award-show exposure, viral social trends, and legacy catalog movements, all of which have historical precedent for producing rapid changes at the top of the chart.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations based on incoming data — releases, streaming tallies, radio adds, and publicity — and should be read as a real-time summary of that information rather than a fixed prediction. Watch for price movement after new data (release dates, chart reports, playlist adds, viral events) to understand how expectations are shifting.
Resolution will follow the market's contract terms and Billboard's published Hot 100 charts; check the event page for the exact settlement rule. Typically the market will settle after the relevant Billboard chart date(s) that fall within April are published.
The market's outcome wording determines this: some contracts specify the song that is #1 on any Billboard Hot 100 chart dated in April, others use the song that is #1 on the final April-dated chart. Review the event's outcome definitions on the market page to see which rule applies.
Settlement will rely on the Billboard Hot 100 as published by Billboard (the chart pages and official Billboard publications) or the data source specified in the contract; the market page will name the authoritative source used for resolution.
Very quickly — surprise drops and viral trends can produce immediate streaming surges and playlist placements that shift expectations within days, while radio response and sustained consumption patterns take longer to confirm longer stays at #1.
Yes — any recording that meets Billboard's Hot 100 methodology and is credited as #1 on the relevant April-dated Hot 100 chart is eligible; remixes or changes in artist credits can affect how Billboard attributes the #1 credit, so check Billboard's official chart notes for clarification.