| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charter Communications | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Intel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| LyondellBasell Industries | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dollar Tree | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| The Trade Desk | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hasbro | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Solventum Corporation | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Deckers Outdoor Corporation | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Norwegian Cruise Line | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which specific companies will be removed from the S&P 500 during calendar Q2 2026. Removals matter because they trigger reallocation by index funds and can materially affect trading volumes and share prices of affected firms.
S&P 500 membership changes are made by S&P Dow Jones Indices and occur for reasons such as mergers and acquisitions, bankruptcies, delistings, or index-eligibility shifts driven by market-cap and float. Historically, most changes are publicly announced before their effective dates, and passive vehicles that track the index must buy or sell accordingly, creating predictable liquidity events.
Odds in this market reflect the evolving consensus among traders about which companies will appear on the official S&P removal list for Q2 2026; treat them as real-time market sentiment that updates as new corporate or index announcements arrive.
A company counts if S&P Dow Jones Indices lists it as removed from the S&P 500 with an official effective date between April 1 and June 30, 2026, regardless of the underlying reason for removal.
Resolution will occur after S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes its official membership changes with effective dates in Q2 2026; the platform will use those official effective dates to finalize outcomes.
Official S&P Dow Jones Indices announcements and the S&P website's index change notices are primary; the adjudicator may also reference exchange filings and company press releases to confirm effective dates.
Yes—this event counts any official removal from the index with an effective Q2 2026 date, whether due to M&A, privatization, bankruptcy, delisting, or committee-driven replacement.
No—only removals with official effective dates falling within Q2 2026 (April 1–June 30) are counted for this market; announcements with effective dates outside that window do not qualify.