| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Affirm Holdings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| SoFi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pure Storage | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Toast | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Strategy (MicroStrategy) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → | |
| CoreWeave | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which specific companies will be added to the S&P 500 during Q2 2026. Constituents matter because inclusion triggers index fund/ETF buying and can materially affect a company's stock liquidity, demand, and visibility.
The S&P 500 is maintained by an index committee that adds companies meeting size, liquidity, domicile and listing criteria; additions typically follow corporate events (IPOs, spin-offs, mergers) or when a company crosses eligibility thresholds. Historically, committee decisions are announced on an ad‑hoc basis and can prompt short‑term price and volume shifts as passive funds adjust holdings.
Market prices in this Kalshi market represent collective expectations about which firms the index committee will select for Q2 2026; they are not guarantees. Treat prices as a real‑time aggregation of information and update them as official S&P releases or corporate news arrive.
There is no fixed calendar date; S&P Dow Jones Indices announces additions on an ad‑hoc basis when the committee decides. Announcements are typically made via press release and posted to the S&P website, often with short notice and sometimes timed for pre‑market or after‑market publication.
Eligibility generally requires a minimum market capitalization and public float, sufficient trading liquidity, a U.S. domicile and primary listing on NYSE/NASDAQ, and typically a record of recent profitability or meeting S&P's earnings thresholds. The committee applies these standards and exercises judgment on borderline cases.
Corporate events can create open slots (e.g., large mergers remove a company) or produce newly eligible entities (spin‑offs or late‑quarter IPOs that meet thresholds). Such events change the candidate pool and can accelerate or delay selections depending on timing and whether the resulting entity meets committee criteria.
Inclusion announcements typically increase demand from index funds and ETFs that track the S&P 500, which can boost price and trading volume for the added companies. The magnitude and duration vary with company liquidity, the size of passive flows, and whether the market had already priced in the addition.
Use the market to gauge collective expectations and to monitor how new information is incorporated in real time, but always confirm final outcomes with official S&P Dow Jones Indices releases and company statements or SEC filings. Adjust any positions or decisions after official announcements and consider execution timing for index fund rebalancing effects.