| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before April | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before July | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before October | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks when Apple will release the iPhone 18. The timing matters for investors, suppliers, carriers, app developers, and consumers because launch timing affects sales cycles, supply chain planning, and competitive positioning.
Apple has historically followed an annual flagship cadence with major iPhone announcements in September, though some models or form factors have appeared on different schedules and Apple has occasionally adjusted timing for technical or supply reasons. Key inputs include Apple's internal product roadmap, chip and component readiness (notably TSMC and other suppliers), manufacturing ramp at assemblers like Foxconn, and regulatory or carrier certification steps.
Market odds aggregate traders’ expectations about release timing based on public signals (Apple invites, regulatory filings, supply chain reports, and leaks). Watch for new public evidence — official announcements, production ramp reports, or certification filings — which typically move expectations.
This market has four outcomes; each outcome represents a mutually exclusive release timing window as defined on the market page. Check the market description for the specific date ranges or labels used to resolve the event.
Apple’s flagship announcements have commonly occurred in September, so that pattern is a useful baseline—but it is not definitive; deviations can occur due to engineering schedules, component shortages, strategy changes, or supply-chain disruptions.
Official Apple event invitations or press statements, regulatory filings (e.g., FCC or other regional certifications), mass-production reports from supply-chain sources, and credible supplier or assembler shipment/ramp reports are the most market-moving signals.
Delays, yield problems, or constrained capacity at chip foundries or assemblers can push back mass production and thus the public release; conversely, early ramp reports and confirmed shipment schedules make earlier windows more plausible.
Resolution depends on the market’s specific definition: typically these markets resolve based on the general commercial release of the named model series (the first public availability of iPhone 18 models as defined on the market page). Review the resolution rules on the market page to see whether staggered variant releases affect outcome eligibility.