| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Apr 1, 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Oct 1, 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2031 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks when any company will first achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) — a system with broad, human‑level or greater capabilities across diverse tasks. It matters because corporate achievement of AGI would reshape technology, labor, security, and regulation globally.
Background: AGI is a long‑standing research ambition distinct from narrow AI systems tuned for specific tasks. Progress in recent years has accelerated through larger models, more compute, and new training methods, while companies compete to translate advances into deployed systems. The market aggregates trader beliefs about which calendar window a company will claim or demonstrate AGI under the market's settlement rules.
Interpretation: Market prices reflect the collective judgment of participants about which outcome window is most likely, and they update as new technical, commercial, or regulatory information arrives. Use prices as a dynamic, consensus‑based signal rather than a definitive prediction; check the market page for exact outcome labels and settlement criteria.
The market is divided into disjoint outcome buckets that map to different calendar windows (e.g., multi‑year ranges) and sometimes an outcome for 'no company achieves AGI within the listed windows.' Each outcome corresponds to the event occurring within that specific timeframe; consult the market page for the precise labels and boundaries.
A public claim typically triggers rapid market repricing, but final settlement depends on the exchange's adjudication rules and any verification criteria they apply. Traders should review the market's definitions and the operator's dispute/adjudication processes to understand how claims are evaluated.
This market specifically asks when any company achieves AGI; therefore, a claim by an academic or non‑profit entity would not directly satisfy the event unless a company is explicitly involved per the market's settlement definitions. Non‑company breakthroughs can still accelerate corporate timelines, which influences trading.
‘Company’ generally refers to commercial entities (startups, private firms, or public corporations). Exact inclusion criteria—such as spun‑out labs or collaborations—are defined by the market operator, so check the event description and adjudication guidance for the formal definition used for settlement.
Monitor major company announcements, peer‑reviewed publications, benchmark and evaluation results, compute and funding trends, hiring and productization moves, independent verification efforts, and regulatory or safety policy developments; also follow the market's trade flow and news threads for immediate signals.