| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| War Machine | 98% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Jurassic World Rebirth | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Trap House | 2% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $266 | Trade → |
| The Orphans | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $250 | Trade → |
| The Expendables 4 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $250 | Trade → |
| Joe’s College Road Trip | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $250 | Trade → |
| Fall | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $250 | Trade → |
| Firebreak | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $250 | Trade → |
| KPop Demon Hunters | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $50 | Trade → |
| Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning | 1% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $50 | Trade → |
| The Addams Family | 1% | 0¢ | 75¢ | — | $50 | Trade → |
This market asks which film will be the Top Global Netflix Movie for the relevant week — i.e., the single movie that Netflix reports as its number-one global title for that weekly measurement window. It matters because it tracks short-term viewer attention and the immediate impact of releases, marketing and cultural moments on Netflix's global audience.
Netflix publishes weekly global rankings based on its internal viewership metrics; those rankings are the typical authoritative source for determining a weekly #1. In the streaming era, many films peak on debut week, but sustained promotion, international availability, and viral moments can flip rankings after release. Market participants watch release schedules, platform promotion, and social buzz for signals about which title will top the weekly list.
Market prices aggregate traders' beliefs about which movie will finish as Netflix's global #1 for the week and update as new information arrives; they are not guarantees. The market is settled against Netflix's published global ranking for the specified weekly window and by the platform's settlement rules.
The 'week' corresponds to the weekly measurement window used by Netflix when it publishes its global Top 10 list; this market uses Netflix's published global ranking for that window as the authoritative reference. For the exact cutoff and timing, consult the event's settlement rules on the platform.
The market lists 11 specific movie outcomes; the winner is whichever of those named films is reported by Netflix as the #1 global movie during the relevant weekly measurement window. If the #1 film on Netflix is not among the listed outcomes, settlement will follow the platform's stated procedures.
Settlement follows the authoritative source named in the event (Netflix's published global ranking). If Netflix indicates a tie or multiple titles for #1, the market will be settled according to Kalshi's published tie-breaking and settlement rules — check those rules on the event page for precisely how ties are handled.
New release announcements or surprise drops, major marketing pushes, a title being promoted on Netflix's front page or Top 10 banners, viral social-media moments, and sudden regional licensing changes are the main developments that shift market expectations and prices.
This event currently shows 'Closes: TBD', so trading remains open until the platform publishes a specific close time. Final settlement will occur after Netflix's relevant weekly global ranking is published and in accordance with the platform's settlement timeline; watch the event page for the official close and settlement announcements.