| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firebreak | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| The Addams Family | 1% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One | 27% | 26¢ | 66¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Joe’s College Road Trip | 3% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| The Addams Family 2 | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $836 | Trade → |
| KPop Demon Hunters | 3% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $814 | Trade → |
| The Orphans | 5% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $621 | Trade → |
| Fall | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $519 | Trade → |
| A Father's Miracle | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $343 | Trade → |
| The Expendables 4 | 6% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $255 | Trade → |
| How to Train Your Dragon | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $250 | Trade → |
| Homefront | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $250 | Trade → |
This market asks which movie will be Netflix's #1 global movie for the specified week; it matters because the weekly top title signals viewing trends, marketing momentum, and international reach for films on the platform.
Netflix updates its Top 10 lists weekly using internal viewing metrics, and the weekly #1 spot can flip between new releases and library titles depending on promotion and cultural moments. The market lists 12 candidate outcomes (specific movie titles) and tracks trader expectations of which will claim the top global spot during the referenced week.
Market odds aggregate participants' information and react to new evidence — for this event that includes premieres, marketing campaigns, regional viewing patterns, and social-media momentum. Odds are dynamic: they change as new data (release schedules, Netflix reports, viral trends) arrives.
The winner is the movie that Netflix lists as the #1 global movie for the weekly reporting window used by this market; that determination is based on Netflix’s internal viewing metric published in its weekly Top 10 update that the market operator uses for resolution.
‘This week’ matches the weekly reporting window Netflix uses for its Top 10 list; the market will resolve based on the title occupying the #1 global position for that same Netflix weekly update—note that the market’s official close and resolution date are listed as TBD by the platform.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific movie title preselected for this market; only those named outcomes can win, and the market resolves to whichever named title appears as Netflix’s #1 global movie for the relevant week.
Yes—catalog titles can return to the top if catalyzed by price promotions, renewed marketing, talent publicity, anniversaries, holiday viewing patterns, or viral social-media attention that drives large viewing increases.
The market operator will post a resolution notice after the applicable Netflix weekly Top 10 is published; if Netflix’s published data is ambiguous or delayed, the platform’s published dispute and resolution rules determine outcome timing and any adjudication process.