| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 280000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 300000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 320000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 340000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 360000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 380000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 400000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Tesla will reach a specified production outcome during Q1 2026; it matters because quarterly production is a direct indicator of manufacturing health, supply availability, and near-term revenue potential for Tesla and its suppliers.
Tesla reports production and deliveries on a quarterly cadence and has expanded global capacity in recent years through factories in Fremont, Shanghai, Austin, and Berlin/Brandenburg; production in any given quarter is influenced by factory ramps, model mix, supply chains (notably batteries and semiconductors), and regional demand. Quarterly production outcomes are watched closely by investors, suppliers, and policymakers because they signal execution against guidance and the broader EV market trajectory.
Market odds on this event aggregate participants’ expectations about the official Q1 2026 production outcome and update in real time as new information arrives; they are a summary of current market beliefs, not guarantees of the actual result.
Q1 2026 generally refers to the calendar quarter Jan 1–Mar 31, 2026; the precise metric and settlement source (for example, Tesla’s official quarterly production report or another specified release) are defined on the Kalshi event page — check the event rules for the authoritative source.
Most announcements and aggregated production figures include global output from Tesla-operated factories, but the event’s settlement description specifies whether it uses global consolidated production or a narrower definition — confirm on the Kalshi listing.
Kalshi’s event page will name the settlement source; for Tesla quarters, settlement commonly relies on Tesla’s official quarterly production and delivery release or other specified filings — always verify the listed source before trading.
Items that materially change expected output tend to move the market: factory outages or restart notices, supplier/battery shortages, confirmed ramp delays for new models, regulatory changes affecting production or incentives, and major order cancellations or surges.
Prices typically react rapidly — often within minutes to hours — as participants incorporate the official figures into expectations; final settlement will follow the platform’s timing rules tied to the specified official source.