| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 290000 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 300000 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 310000 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 320000 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 330000 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 340000 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 350000 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 360000 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 370000 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 380000 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 390000 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 400000 or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Tesla will meet a specified deliveries outcome for Q1 2026; deliveries are a core operational metric that influences investor sentiment and short-term share-price moves. It matters because quarterly deliveries summarize production, demand, and logistics performance across Tesla's global footprint.
Tesla reports global vehicle deliveries each quarter, a figure watched by analysts for signals about production ramps, model mix, and regional demand. Historically, Q1 can be affected by seasonality and regional calendar events (for example, holidays and factory shutdowns), while ongoing factory ramps (Shanghai, Texas, Berlin, Fremont) and new-model introductions can change the trend.
Prediction market odds reflect the market consensus about whether the specified Q1 2026 deliveries outcome will occur, incorporating public data, supplier and shipping signals, and company disclosures. Odds update as new information (production updates, supply-chain news, company statements) arrives.
It refers to the number of vehicles Tesla reports as delivered to customers during calendar Q1 2026, as defined by Tesla's public reporting; the market resolves based on the event's stated settlement rules and the company's official delivery disclosure.
Tesla has historically published deliveries figures in the first few days of the month after the quarter ends, so traders often watch for an early-April announcement for Q1; exact timing varies and this market's close time is listed as TBD.
Outputs from Gigafactory Shanghai, Giga Texas, Giga Berlin, and Fremont are the primary drivers, with the Model 3 and Model Y typically representing the majority of volume; any ramp or production shifts for new models (e.g., Cybertruck) would also materially affect totals.
Delays in battery-cell supply, semiconductor shortages, shipping or port congestion, severe weather, or labor/strike events can reduce shipments or delay handovers, while resolved bottlenecks or one-time catch-up shipments can boost reported deliveries.
Useful signals include Tesla's official pre-quarter or delivery statements, supplier announcements, factory activity reports, shipping and port data, regional vehicle registration and sales figures, and analyst channel checks; these items typically move market expectations ahead of the official release.