| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2030 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether SpaceX's Starship will carry humans on a Mars-bound mission that meets the event's resolution criteria before 2030. The outcome matters because it would mark a major milestone in commercial deep-space human exploration and affect timelines and investments across the space sector.
Starship is a large, reusable launch-and-spacecraft system developed by SpaceX with the explicit goal of enabling crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. Development has proceeded through iterative prototype testing, high-altitude flights, and orbital attempts while teams work on human-rating, in-space refueling, and surface systems needed for Mars missions. Achieving a crewed Mars mission involves not only a successful launch vehicle but also certified life-support, ascent/descent capability, and operational logistics for transit and surface operations.
Market prices reflect participants' aggregated views about whether the event condition will be met by the stated deadline and change as new technical results, regulatory decisions, and program announcements arrive. Use prices as a real-time summary of changing information, but pair them with independent analysis of engineering, schedule, and policy risks.
Resolution depends on the market's contract text; generally it refers to at least one Starship mission that carries humans on a Mars-bound flight before the 2030 cutoff. Check the exchange's precise resolution rules for whether a launch alone or arrival at Mars is required.
No—routine crewed tests in Earth orbit would not satisfy this event unless the mission specifically departs on a Mars-bound trajectory with humans and meets the market's stated criteria before the deadline.
Partnerships do not change the event's resolution: what matters is whether a Starship carries humans on a Mars-bound mission that meets the market definition before 2030, regardless of funding or operational partners.
Key milestones include repeated successful orbital Starship flights, demonstrated orbital refueling, integrated long-duration life-support tests, reliable high-energy entry/landing performance, and successful demonstration missions that validate end-to-end mission operations.
Efficient interplanetary transfers require launch windows that occur roughly every 26 months, so mission timing and the need for precursor cargo or infrastructure launches are constrained by those windows; missing a favorable window can push a planned mission into the next cycle and affect whether it can occur before 2030.