| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before March | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before February | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before January | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before April | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before May | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before June | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether SpaceX will conduct the program's 12th Starship flight; it matters because each test flight advances vehicle development, influences regulatory scrutiny, and shapes commercial and investor expectations for heavy-lift capability.
Starship is being developed through an iterative test-flight program in which lessons from each flight drive design changes, ground infrastructure repairs, and updated procedures. Past flights have produced mixed technical results, regulatory reviews, and local operational impacts; those historical outcomes are the main context for assessing when a next flight might occur. Launch cadence depends on vehicle fixes, launch facility readiness, and approvals from range and environmental authorities.
Market prices aggregate traders' real-time reactions to new information such as regulatory decisions, official SpaceX announcements, pad repairs, and weather; interpret them as a continuously updated summary of collective expectations rather than a fixed prediction.
The market refers to the twelfth distinct flight attempt of a Starship vehicle in the program's flight sequence. Resolution typically follows the market's published rules and official designations (e.g., if SpaceX labels a specific mission as the 12th flight or if tradeable outcomes reference the 12th sequential attempt); check the market's outcome definitions for how aborted attempts or scrubbed windows are treated.
Key influences include range safety and launch licenses issued by federal aviation and environmental authorities, local permitting and environmental reviews, and coordination with maritime/airspace controllers. Any additional agency inquiries or required mitigations stemming from prior flights can also introduce delays.
Anomalies or structural issues discovered in earlier flights can necessitate design changes, extended inspections, or pad repairs that push schedules. Conversely, a clean flight reduces the need for corrective work and can accelerate the next attempt; regulators may also respond differently based on the nature of past failures or successes.
An official SpaceX window or manifest entry is a high‑signal event indicating vehicle and operations are progressing; traders will weigh that alongside range availability and regulatory status. A window announcement increases near‑term plausibility but does not guarantee execution because technical, weather, or approval issues can still cause scrubs.
Yes. SpaceX must balance resources, personnel, manufacturing capacity, and mission priorities across its vehicles and customers. Decisions to prioritize other missions, reallocate hardware, or shift personnel can change the timing of test flights even if the vehicle itself is ready.