| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hires | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Sam Altman will be replaced as OpenAI CEO during the current calendar year. It matters because leadership changes at a major AI company can affect strategy, product development, partnerships, and market confidence.
Sam Altman is a high‑profile leader closely associated with OpenAI’s strategy and public image; changes at the CEO level would signal a major governance or strategic shift. OpenAI’s interactions with investors, partners, regulators, and its board, plus product milestones and public controversies, create an environment where leadership stability is relevant to many stakeholders.
Market prices aggregate traders’ expectations based on public information and can move quickly after announcements; they are not guarantees. Use the market as a real‑time indicator of how observers view the likelihood of a CEO change, and combine it with independent sources and due diligence.
Settlement definitions vary by market, but most markets treat any official change in who holds the CEO title as a replacement, including the appointment of an interim or permanent successor. Check the specific market rules and settlement criteria for this contract to be sure.
If he no longer holds the CEO title and someone else assumes that role, that is typically considered a replacement even if he stays in another position. Confirm the market’s exact wording to verify how role changes are treated.
Yes: if an acquisition leads to Sam Altman no longer serving as CEO and someone else occupying the CEO role, that ordinarily meets the definition of being replaced. Again, consult the market’s settlement rules for edge cases.
Typically it refers to the current calendar year during which the contract is active, but exact interpretation depends on the market’s stated timeline and settlement date. Check the market listing for the contract’s defined period and any updates.
Authoritative confirmations usually include official OpenAI press releases or corporate filings, statements from the board, or widely reported coverage from established news organizations. The market’s rules will list acceptable sources and tie‑breaking procedures if needed.