| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stateside + Zara Larsson | 91% | 88¢ | 92¢ | — | $910 | Trade → |
| Choosin' Texas | 1% | 0¢ | 6¢ | — | $400 | Trade → |
| Risk It All | 7% | 7¢ | 9¢ | — | $223 | Trade → |
| I Just Might | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| End of Beginning | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| NUEVAYoL | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| E85 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Body | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| So Easy (To Fall In Love) | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tití Me Preguntó | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cha Cha Cha | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| BAILE INoLVIDABLE | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Man I Need | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| DtMF | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Babydoll | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which song will be the runner-up (second-most streamed) on Spotify in the United States on March 4, 2026. It matters for traders who want to express views on short-term streaming performance and event-driven shifts in music popularity.
Spotify daily streaming totals and charts are highly sensitive to new releases, viral moments, playlist placement, and coordinated promotional campaigns. Historically, top chart positions on a given day can be influenced by release-day spikes, catalog resurgences, and cross-platform virality (social video, film/TV syncs, major live performances). Keep in mind that daily streaming outcomes are often more volatile than weekly charts because a single day can be dominated by release timing and immediate promotional pushes.
Market prices reflect collective beliefs about which specific song will be second-most streamed on the specified date; they should be interpreted as crowd-implied relative likelihoods rather than guarantees. Always confirm the exchange's official settlement definition to understand exactly which data source and time window determine the result.
Settlement typically depends on a defined data source (e.g., Spotify’s official US daily chart or stream counts for the US region) over the calendar date in question; consult the KALSHI market rules for the precise metric, time zone, and chart API used.
Release timing (midnight drops in particular time zones) and the market’s defined counting window can concentrate streams into or out of that date, so songs released close to the day boundary may receive fewer or more counted streams depending on the settlement window—check the exchange’s time-zone and window definitions.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific song title or listed entry shown on the KALSHI market page; open the market to view the full list of named outcomes and any associated artist metadata.
Tie-breaking and settlement contingencies are handled per the exchange’s official rules; those rules explain whether ties lead to split payouts, use of a secondary data source, or another predetermined method—review KALSHI’s settlement policy for this market.
Settlement timing depends on when the exchange obtains and verifies the authoritative data feed from Spotify or its designated chart; settlement can take from hours to several days—check the market page or KALSHI’s settlement timeline for the expected publication schedule.