| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avengers: Doomsday | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dune: Part Three | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Godzilla Minus Zero | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Project Hail Mary | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Narnia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which film(s) will be named among the Oscar nominations for Best Visual Effects; it matters because nominations shape awards-season momentum, industry recognition, and commercial visibility for VFX teams and studios.
The Academy's Visual Effects branch and the wider membership determine nominees after a shortlist and review process; nominees are announced on the Academy's official nominations date, which sets this market's resolution trigger. Historically, both large-studio tentpoles and smaller films with standout technical innovation have been recognized, and recent trends include hybrid practical/digital techniques and high-profile franchise entries.
Market prices reflect traders' collective assessment of who will be nominated and will shift as official shortlists, awards-season results, reviews, and campaign activity arrive; interpret odds as a live consensus indicator, not a fixed forecast.
Resolution follows the Academy's official nominations announcement for Best Visual Effects; because the market's close is listed as TBD, traders should watch the Academy's schedule and the event page for the specified resolution timestamp and any platform notices.
The market lists five mutually exclusive outcomes as specified on the event page (each tied to a particular film or outcome option); consult the event's outcome list on the platform to see which films or options correspond to each listed outcome.
A published Academy shortlist or endorsements from the Visual Effects branch typically narrows contenders and prompt market repricing, because they provide concrete signals about which films are under active consideration by voters.
Key indicators include Visual Effects Society (VES) and BAFTA nominations/wins, technical press and trade reviews, the release of VFX reels and behind-the-scenes features, and visible studio campaign activity aimed at Academy members.
The market will be settled according to the event resolution rules on the platform and the Academy's official announcement; if the Academy issues corrections or disqualifications, settlement will follow those official actions and any dispute-resolution procedures specified by the platform.