| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digger | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fjord | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Forgotten Island | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Josephine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wild Horse Nine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which screenplay will secure an Oscar nomination in the Best Original Screenplay category. It matters because nominations shape awards momentum, industry recognition, and downstream market expectations.
Oscar nominations for writing are determined by the Academy’s Writing Branch and recognize scripts not based on previously published or produced material. Historically, nominations reflect a mix of critical reception, festival exposure, guild recognition, and studio or independent campaigning. Because this market is about nominations rather than winners, timing and eligibility cutoffs are especially important.
Market prices represent how traders collectively view each listed outcome given available information; price movement usually reflects new developments such as screenings, critics’ lists, or awards-season signals. Low trading volume or late information can make prices more volatile and less stable as indicators.
The listing shows the market close as TBD; KALSHI or the market rules determine the exact close time. Check the market page for updates and confirm whether the market closes before or after the Academy’s official nomination announcement.
The market creator has set five mutually exclusive outcomes; each outcome typically corresponds to a specific screenplay or grouping of potential nominees. Traders should verify what each outcome label represents on the market page.
An original screenplay is generally one not based on previously published material or another existing work; eligibility is also tied to release windows and official submission procedures set by the Academy. For edge cases, the Academy’s rules and eligibility committee make final determinations.
Low or zero trading volume indicates limited liquidity and fewer participants, which can make prices sensitive to single trades or announcements and less reliable as a consensus signal. Higher volume generally produces more stable, informative prices.
Key signals include release date changes or qualifying runs, major festival awards or standout reviews, endorsements from writing guilds or prominent critics, and the timing or visibility of screening campaigns aimed at Academy voters.