| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarissa | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dune: Part Three | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Saturn Return | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| The Social Reckoning | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wildwood | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Project Hail Mary | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| The Odyssey | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Toy Story 5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which option will correspond to the Oscar nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay; it lets traders express views on who or what will be officially nominated. Nomination outcomes shape awards-season momentum for films, writers, and distributors.
Best Adapted Screenplay recognizes screenplays based on existing material (novels, plays, articles, prior films, etc.) and has a long history as one of the Academy's writing awards. Eligibility and nomination procedures are set by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), and interaction between guild rules, festival showings, and campaign strategies often determines finalists.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of traders about which outcome will be the official nominations and will move as news arrives (e.g., guild awards, eligibility rulings, release updates). They are not guarantees—use them as a real‑time signal, not a definitive prediction.
This market reflects the Academy's upcoming nominations announcement; the official announcement date is set by AMPAS and the market's close may be listed by the platform — monitor the Academy calendar and the platform for the exact announcement and any platform close time.
The Academy's typical practice is to nominate up to five screenplays in this category, subject to the Academy's rules for that year; the exact number is determined by the nomination voting results and the Academy's published procedures.
Eligibility is determined by AMPAS rules for the awards year: the screenplay must be an adaptation of previously published or produced material and the film must meet the Academy's release and submission requirements; official eligibility lists and submission filings on the Academy website identify the formal pool.
Members of the Academy's Writers Branch cast the nomination ballots for the screenplay categories; those nomination ballots produce the finalist list that this market references.
Watch Writers Guild awards and credit rulings, major festival prizes, critics' group ballots, studio campaign announcements, changes to release or qualifying runs, and any breaking controversies or disqualifications—each can materially shift expectations for who will be nominated.