| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renate Reinsve | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cynthia Erivo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Natalie Portman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sandra Hüller | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Joan Collins | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Scarlett Johansson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kirsten Dunst | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Penélope Cruz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Dakota Johnson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mikey Madison | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Julianne Moore | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Lily Gladstone | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Emily Blunt | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michelle Williams | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daisy Edgar-Jones | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi event tracks which named performer will receive an Academy Award nomination in the Best Actress category. It matters because nominations shape awards-season dynamics and are a key milestone for films and performers.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences annually announces nominees for Best Actress following a voting and eligibility process tied to release dates, theatrical runs, and member screenings. Historically the category has featured both critically acclaimed indie performances and high-profile studio roles; guild results, critics’ awards, and festival buzz often foreshadow the official nominees. This specific market lists nine outcomes corresponding to individual performers under consideration by traders.
Market prices reflect participants’ collective assessment of which listed performer will be nominated and update as new information arrives; treat prices as signals that move with news rather than fixed predictions. Low trading volume can make prices less reliable and more sensitive to single trades or headlines.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific performer listed by Kalshi as a candidate for an Academy Best Actress nomination; the winning outcome will be whichever listed performer is officially named a nominee by the Academy.
Settlement will follow the Academy’s official nominations list: the event will determine winners based on the names the Academy publicly announces on nomination day, and traders should watch that announcement for final settlement details.
Use major awards and festival acclaim as leading indicators: strong showings at critics’ groups, SAG, or major festivals often increase a performer’s likelihood of securing a nomination because they signal peer and critical support among Academy voters.
Yes — zero or low volume means prices may be thin and volatile; they can change sharply on little activity or a single trade, so interpret movements cautiously and consider external information rather than price alone.
If a performer is declared ineligible or a film withdraws prior to the Academy’s nomination announcement, that information typically removes or invalidates the outcome for settlement purposes; follow official Academy rulings and Kalshi notices for how the market will handle specific cases.