| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Malkovich | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tom Cruise | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Josh O'Connor | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Andrew Scott | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Charles Melton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Channing Tatum | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sebastian Stan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Keanu Reeves | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Adam Driver | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brad Pitt | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Timothée Chalamet | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jaafar Jackson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Damon | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ryan Gosling | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sam Rockwell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jeremy Strong | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pedro Pascal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jeremy Allen White | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which specific actor will be announced as a nominee for the Academy Award for Best Actor. It matters because nominations shape awards momentum, industry recognition, and public interest in films and performers.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences nominates performers each awards season according to its eligibility and voting rules; Best Actor nominations are a central part of awards-season coverage and often reflect a mix of critical reception, studio campaigning, and peer voting. Historically the Best Actor category has tended to nominate a small set of contenders each year, but the exact field and dynamics can shift with changing release patterns, campaigning strategies, and occasional Academy rule changes.
Market prices on this contract represent how traders collectively view the likelihood of each named actor appearing on the Academy's official Best Actor nomination list; prices move as new information (reviews, festival buzz, awards wins, campaign news) becomes available. Use prices as a real-time signal of market sentiment rather than a definitive forecast, and always consult the market’s settlement rules for final determination.
Each listed outcome corresponds to the named actor receiving an official Academy Best Actor nomination; the market will settle to the outcome that matches the Academy’s announced nominee list per the contract’s settlement rules.
Settlement policy varies by exchange; check the KALSHI contract terms for this market. Common approaches are to void or refund positions if no listed outcome matches the official announcement, or to follow a specified fallback resolution if provided.
This market’s closing time is listed as TBD; in practice, markets tied to nominations typically remain open until the organizer sets a closing time that precedes or aligns with the official nominations announcement—monitor the market page for an update.
Settlement will rely on the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences’ official nomination announcement or another authoritative source named in the contract; check the market’s resolution rules to confirm the exact official source used.
If an actor is disqualified or formally withdrawn before the Academy’s official nominations announcement, the market will typically resolve based on the final official nominations; consult the contract’s rules for how last-minute eligibility changes are treated.