| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odessa A'zion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Mari Yamamoto | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Laura Dern | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Emily Blunt | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Ariana Grande | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Ayo Edebiri | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Chase Infiniti | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Glenn Close | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Gwyneth Paltrow | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Jennifer Lopez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Rebecca Ferguson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wunmi Mosaku | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Teyana Taylor | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Amy Madigan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Elle Fanning | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which performer will win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress; it aggregates trader expectations ahead of the Oscars and can surface how public and professional sentiment is shifting. It matters because it synthesizes diverse information—awards-season signals, reviews, and campaign effects—into a single, time‑sensitive indicator of who the market thinks will win.
The Best Supporting Actress Oscar is decided by voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and is historically shaped by nomination dynamics, studio and indie campaign strategies, and performances that resonate with voters. Over time some races follow clear awards‑season momentum while others produce upsets; branch voting rules, eligibility cutoffs, and the timing of film releases all contribute to the shape of the contest. This market reflects those inputs and any new developments between nominations and the ceremony.
Market prices are a real‑time aggregation of trader opinions and should be interpreted as the market's current consensus expectation rather than a guaranteed outcome. Prices change as new information (wins at precursor awards, publicity, eligibility rulings, or controversies) becomes available.
The event lists the named outcomes visible on the market page; these typically include the main nominated actresses plus any longshots or an 'Other' category if offered. Refer to the event's outcome list on the trading platform for the exact labels that determine settlement.
The market's close is marked as TBD; commonly, awards markets close either at the moment the official Academy announcement is made or at a deadline set by the exchange. Monitor the event page for any platform updates about the official closing time.
Resolution of ties depends on the exchange's rulebook for this event; many prediction platforms pay out all listed winners in the case of an official tie, while others follow predefined resolution procedures. Check the event resolution rules shown on the market page to see how ties are handled here.
Precursor awards are influential because they signal peer and critical support and can shift trader expectations, but their impact varies by year and by how closely those voting bodies overlap with the Academy. Traders typically treat strong precursor performance as a positive signal while still weighing Academy‑specific factors.
Whether outcomes can change depends on the platform's policy for this specific event; many markets fix outcome labels once trading begins to preserve trading fairness, while others may add outcome options before trading opens. Consult the event rules on the platform for any allowances or restrictions on modifying outcomes.