| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nouvelle Vague | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| The Fantastic Four: First Steps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| The Phoenician Scheme | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Wake Up Dead Man | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Wicked: For Good | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Kiss of the Spider Woman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Bugonia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Hedda | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| One Battle After Another | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marty Supreme | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sinners | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hamnet | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Frankenstein | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi prediction market asks which film will win the Academy Award for Best Production Design; it matters because it aggregates market participants' expectations about a high-profile awards outcome that can influence industry reputation and future work for designers.
Best Production Design honors the creative team responsible for a film's sets, locations, and overall visual environment; winners often come from visually distinctive period pieces, large-scale fantasies, or films with strong art department visibility. The category's outcome is shaped by the Academy's voting body, awards-season momentum, and industry guild recognition, and the market currently lists 16 possible outcomes with a closing time marked TBD.
Market prices reflect collective expectations and change as new information (nominations, guild awards, press coverage) arrives; they should be interpreted as a snapshot of sentiment, not definitive predictions or guarantees.
The market shows a closing time of TBD; Kalshi will announce the final close on the market page, and closure typically aligns with the operator's rules around market settlement and official Academy results.
Each listed outcome corresponds to a film/production designer option offered by the market at listing; they are intended to reflect the set of plausible winners as determined by Kalshi when the market was created, and the full list is visible on the market page.
Key movers include official Academy nomination announcements, the Art Directors Guild results, major precursor awards (like BAFTA), influential critics' coverage, and high-profile trade reporting or campaign developments.
Settlement will follow Kalshi's rules and will be based on the Academy's official announcement of the Best Production Design winner; the market will pay out according to the winning outcome specified in the official result.
Price movements reflect new information and consensus shifts; alignment with related markets (e.g., Art Direction/Set Decoration awards) can indicate correlated expectations, while divergence may signal idiosyncratic risk, late campaigning, or differing participant views.