| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamnet | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wicked: For Good | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| A House of Dynamite | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Frankenstein | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| No Other Choice | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Jay Kelly | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| One Battle After Another | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sinners | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| It Was Just an Accident | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Rental Family | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| The Secret Agent | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sentimental Value | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| F1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Train Dreams | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marty Supreme | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bugonia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which film will win the Academy Award for Best Picture; it matters because Best Picture is the most-watched and influential award in film, shaping industry prestige and downstream commercial opportunities.
The Academy Awards (Oscars) are a long-standing annual institution; Best Picture is historically the most contested category and often reflects a combination of artistic recognition and industry campaigning. Markets for Best Picture aggregate public and professional views on which nominee will secure the Oscar, and outcomes can shift rapidly across awards-season milestones.
Market prices on this page represent collective trader sentiment and liquidity around each listed outcome; they update as new information—nominations, guild awards, reviews, campaign developments—becomes available and should be read as evolving signals rather than fixed predictions.
The market close time is listed as TBD; Kalshi typically sets a final close either shortly before or at the official Academy announcement of the winner. Check the market page and platform notices for the exact closing timestamp.
The 19 outcomes correspond to the individual films and any additional options posted when the market was created (typically nominees and other designated possibilities). See the market’s outcome list on Kalshi for the exact labels and how each outcome maps to a film or category.
Rapid movements usually reflect new information—such as major precursor award results, high-profile reviews, campaign announcements, or breaking news—moving trader expectations. Use movements as signals to investigate the underlying news rather than as standalone proof of a winner.
Higher total volume generally means more liquidity and a broader set of opinions contributing to prices, which can improve informational content; however, volume alone does not guarantee accuracy and can be driven by speculative trading.
If rules or dates change, Kalshi will follow its platform governance and contingency policies—this may include pausing trading, adjusting outcomes, or issuing clarifying announcements. Monitor the market page and official Kalshi communications for any adjustments and settlement guidance.