| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinners | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sentimental Value | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Marty Supreme | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| The Secret Agent | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| After the Hunt | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Sorry, Baby | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| If I Had Legs I'd Kick You | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Rental Family | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Jay Kelly | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Weapons | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Father, Mother, Sister, Brother | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| A House of Dynamite | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Roofman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| The Smashing Machine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| It Was Just an Accident | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Blue Moon | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which screenplay will win the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay; it matters because the Oscar influences industry prestige, career opportunities for writers, and downstream box office/streaming attention.
Best Original Screenplay is awarded by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and historically recognizes scripts not based on previously published material. Winners often reflect a mix of critical acclaim, industry campaigning, and peer recognition within the writers' and Academy communities. Longstanding patterns include occasional surprises from smaller films and frequent alignment with major awards like the Writers Guild and critics' circles, though exceptions occur each year.
Market prices represent how traders collectively perceive the chances of each named outcome compared to others in this specific market; they should be read as a snapshot of current sentiment that can shift with awards-season developments and new information.
It means the market has not set a final trading/settlement date yet; traders should expect the market to remain open until the organizers set a closure tied to the Academy's announcement or an official settlement rule.
Typically each outcome represents a specific screenplay or candidate listed on the market page; confirm on the market interface whether outcomes are the announced nominees, plus any additional longshot or 'other' options included by the market creator.
Precursor awards are informative signals: Writers Guild wins and broad critical awards often shift momentum toward particular screenplays because they reflect peer and critical endorsement, though Academy voting can still differ due to branch composition and eligibility differences.
Significant late developments can rapidly change trader sentiment and market prices as voters reassess candidates; expect increased volatility and potential reallocation of value among outcomes when new information emerges.
When the field is fragmented among many credible contenders, market prices reflect that dispersion; a crowded slate can make the outcome more sensitive to small shifts in momentum from campaigns, awards, or voter preference consolidation.