| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| One Battle After Another | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wake Up Dead Man | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Is This Thing On? | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| No Other Choice | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Wicked: For Good | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Ballad of a Small Player | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Hedda | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Nouvelle Vague | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Nuremberg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| The Life of Chuck | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Frankenstein | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Train Dreams | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hamnet | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bugonia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi prediction market asks which screenplay will win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay; it matters because market prices aggregate industry knowledge, awards-season signals, and public sentiment into a single, tradable indicator of expectations.
The Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay honors the best screenplay adapted from previously published material, such as novels, plays, articles, or earlier films. Historically, winners tend to combine strong script-focused praise with awards-season momentum from guilds and critics' groups, and studio campaigning and peer recognition can be decisive in close races.
Market prices here should be read as the market's current consensus about which nominee is most likely to win, and they will shift as new information (nominations, guild outcomes, reviews, campaigning) arrives; they are snapshots of expectation, not guarantees.
The market close is listed as TBD; trades remain live until Kalshi announces a closing time. Closer to the closing time, prices can move rapidly as bettors react to last-minute information, so check the exchange for official updates and the final trading window.
The market will settle to the single outcome that exactly matches the Academy's official winner for Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars; the contract specifications on Kalshi explain how matching is determined and how winning contracts pay out.
Key movers include the official Academy nominee list, guild award results (especially screenwriters' groups), major critics' and industry awards, high-profile reviews highlighting the screenplay, and any news about campaign activity or controversies affecting nominees.
Markets are generally launched with a fixed set of outcomes; while exchanges can create additional related markets, changes to the outcome list for an active market are uncommon—check Kalshi's market rules and announcements for any exceptions.
Use the market as one consolidated signal alongside guild results, critics' awards, pundit consensus, and campaign reports; the market will often react faster to new information, while awards and guild outcomes provide context about underlying support among Academy voters.