| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Dern | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Jennifer Lawrence | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Cate Blanchett | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Cynthia Erivo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Emily Blunt | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Eva Victor | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Julia Roberts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| June Squibb | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Sydney Sweeney | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Tessa Thompson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kate Hudson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Renate Reinsve | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rose Byrne | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jessie Buckley | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Emma Stone | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market tracks which actress will win the Academy Award for Best Actress and aggregates traders' expectations about the result. It matters because it offers a real-time, market-based snapshot of consensus sentiment ahead of the Oscars.
The Best Actress Oscar is awarded annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and is shaped by nominations, critics' response, guild awards, and studio campaigning. Historically, transformative performances and biopics often gain traction, but upsets and late shifts in momentum are common. This market evolves as nominations are confirmed, awards season unfolds, and publicity influences voter attention.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of participants given current information and will change as new developments (nominations, wins at precursor awards, reviews, campaigning) occur. Treat prices as a dynamic indicator of relative expectations, not as guarantees of the eventual result.
The market close is listed as TBD; the final trading deadline will be posted on the KALSHI event page. Typically the market closes before the Academy Awards ceremony and resolves when the Academy officially announces the winner.
This market lists 16 outcomes; each outcome corresponds to a specific actress and resolves if that named actress is announced as the Academy Award winner for Best Actress.
Total volume traded ($1,797,475) indicates how much money has changed hands and is a rough proxy for liquidity and participant interest; higher volume generally means prices respond more readily to new information and larger orders have less market impact.
Late-breaking factual news that affects an actress's eligibility or likelihood will typically trigger rapid repricing as traders react; this market resolves to the Academy's official announcement, so only developments recognized by the Academy will determine the final outcome.
An Academy rule change or eligibility decision can materially alter which outcomes remain possible; traders should monitor official Academy communications and the KALSHI event page for guidance, since such changes can prompt significant market adjustments or outcome redefinitions.