| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Plemons | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Dwayne Johnson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Brendan Fraser | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Jeremy Allen White | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Channing Tatum | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Colin Farrell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Daniel Day-Lewis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| George Clooney | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Hugh Jackman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Paul Mescal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Ethan Hawke | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Michael B. Jordan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Timothee Chalamet | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Wagner Moura | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which performer will win the Academy Award for Best Actor and aggregates trader views about that outcome. It matters because it reflects how public and industry signals are being interpreted ahead of the official Oscar announcement.
The Academy Award for Best Actor is one of the Oscars' top categories and is typically decided by votes of Academy members; the ceremony outcome is the official settlement event for winner-based markets. Awards-season dynamics—early festival reactions, guild awards, critics' lists and publicity campaigns—have historically shaped momentum and shifted expectations. This particular market lists 16 potential outcomes, allowing traders to express views on both front-runners and long-shot contenders.
Market prices are an evolving summary of trader sentiment and respond to new information such as awards results, reviews, and campaign developments. Treat prices as a real-time signal of market belief rather than a definitive prediction of the Academy's eventual choice.
It means the market is offering 16 distinct named outcomes that traders can buy or sell; those entries typically represent individual actors believed to have any chance of winning, including official nominees and additional plausible contenders, depending on the market design.
Settlement will follow the official Academy announcement for Best Actor and occur per Kalshi's published settlement rules; the market remains unresolved until the Academy declares the winner at the Oscars ceremony.
It indicates the platform has not yet set a fixed trading cutoff; trading is likely to continue until the platform announces a close or until settlement conditions are met, so check the market page or platform notices for updates.
Higher volume generally improves liquidity and can make market prices less noisy, but volume alone does not guarantee accuracy—outcome still depends on how Academy members vote and on unpredictable developments.
Monitor major peer and critics awards (SAG, BAFTA, critics groups), trade press coverage, screening buzz among Academy voters, and any shifts in campaign strategy or public controversies—these are the most common drivers of changing expectations.