| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 500000 in a single quarter | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 750000 in a single quarter | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1000000 in a single quarter | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1500000 in a single quarter | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2000000 in a single quarter | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how much Tesla's vehicle deliveries will increase before 2027, which matters because deliveries are a central metric of Tesla's revenue growth, manufacturing progress, and market position.
Tesla's deliveries reflect production capacity, demand for electric vehicles, and the company's ability to scale new factories and models. Historical delivery trends, recent factory openings, supply-chain developments, and pricing actions all shape expectations for growth entering 2027.
Market odds aggregate traders' views and public information into prices that move as new information arrives; interpret them as a continuously updating consensus signal, not a guaranteed forecast.
This market is structured as five discrete outcome buckets that correspond to different ranges of delivery growth; the market page lists the precise boundaries for each outcome and the outcome whose range contains the official settled figure wins.
The close and settlement timing for this market are listed on the market page and are currently TBD; settlement will follow the market's published rules, which specify the period and official source used to determine deliveries before 2027.
The market's rule text defines how 'deliveries' are counted and what baseline is used for growth (for example, a specific prior year or cumulative baseline); consult the market specifications for the exact definition that will be used for settlement.
Quarterly Tesla delivery reports and earnings calls, announcements of new factory openings or production ramps, major supply-chain developments, policy changes affecting EV demand, and pricing or product announcements are the primary drivers that can materially shift market prices.
The market will use the adjudicator and source(s) specified in its settlement rules—commonly Tesla's official public disclosures (earnings releases, delivery reports, or regulatory filings); check the market page for the authoritative source list.