| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 30 million | 8% | 5¢ | 8¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| At least 40 million | 14% | 2¢ | 12¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| At least 35 million | 12% | 3¢ | 12¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| At least 50 million | 8% | 1¢ | 8¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| At least 25 million | 95% | 92¢ | 95¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| At least 9 million | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| At least 18 million | 95% | 94¢ | 99¢ | — | $873 | Trade → |
| At least 15 million | 98% | 96¢ | 99¢ | — | $694 | Trade → |
| At least 6 million | 99% | 98¢ | 100¢ | — | $618 | Trade → |
| At least 12 million | 87% | 94¢ | 100¢ | — | $268 | Trade → |
| At least 21 million | 95% | 95¢ | 99¢ | — | $166 | Trade → |
This market asks which view-count bracket the #1-ranked show on Netflix will register during the defined week. It matters because weekly top-view metrics drive industry decisions, marketing focus, and public perception of a show's momentum.
Netflix publishes weekly view metrics and rankings that frequently shift as new releases, season drops, and catalog titles circulate. Historically, #1 slots can be occupied by new premieres, returning hits, or resurging catalog titles driven by events, publicity, or algorithmic boosts. This market lets traders express beliefs about that weekly outcome based on observable drivers.
Market odds represent the consensus of traders about which outcome is most likely given current information; they update as new data (releases, reviews, promotional events) arrives. Use odds as a real-time summary of market expectations rather than a static forecast.
The market settles based on the week defined in the contract; check the market description or settlement rules on the Kalshi page for the precise start and end times used for measurement.
Settlement relies on the specific data source named in the market contract—typically Netflix's official published weekly metrics; consult the market contract for the authoritative source and any tie-breaking rules.
Whether total show hours or only hours for new episodes are counted depends on the metric specified by Netflix and the market contract; many official Netflix weekly reports sum all episode hours for a title, so check the contract for the method used here.
The market contract will state whether the metric is global or region-specific; some Netflix reports provide both global and U.S. figures, so verify which one the market uses before trading.
If the reported source or methodology changes, Kalshi follows the contingencies in the market contract and exchange rules; review those rules and contact Kalshi support for clarifications on any mid-market reporting changes.