| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 6 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 9 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 12 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 15 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 18 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 21 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 25 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 30 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 35 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 40 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 50 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which view-count range the #1 movie on Netflix will achieve during the specified week, letting traders express expectations about popularity and reach. It matters because weekly peak viewership affects industry decisions, marketing effectiveness, and cultural momentum for titles.
Netflix titles can achieve rapid, concentrated viewership in their opening days, and reporting practices for streaming metrics have evolved, so settlement source and definition matter for interpreting outcomes. Weekly top-ranking films often reflect a mix of global availability, release timing, promotion, and episodic competition from other new releases.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of which view-range is most likely given current information; they update as new signals arrive. Treat odds as a real-time aggregation of beliefs and information, and always confirm the contract's settlement source and rules before trading.
The contract description specifies the precise start and end timestamps that define 'this week'; check the market page for that schedule because settlement uses that defined window rather than a calendar week.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined view-count range listed on the market page; the final settled outcome is the range that contains the authoritative view number reported by the contract's designated source.
The market's rules name the authoritative source (for example, an official Netflix report or a specified third-party measurement) — consult the contract text to see which source and reporting metric will be used for settlement.
In-week developments can produce rapid shifts in demand: a viral clip or late-week promotion can drive a spike in viewership that moves the final count across outcome thresholds, while competing premieres or technical outages can suppress views.
Yes — historical patterns (front-loaded premieres, weekend spikes, genre differences, and the impact of star-driven launches) provide useful context, but each title and release environment is unique, so historical data should inform models rather than determine them.