| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 9 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 6 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 40 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 35 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 30 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 50 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 18 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 12 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 25 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 21 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 15 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict which view-count range the #1 movie on Netflix will fall into during the specified week. It matters because weekly top-movie view totals are a leading indicator of audience demand and can reflect marketing success, cultural reach, and platform priorities.
Netflix publishes weekly performance metrics and rankings that determine what qualifies as the platform's #1 movie; those metrics and their definitions have changed historically, so contract-level resolution rules matter. This specific market offers eleven discrete outcomes, each representing a predetermined view-count bracket for the top movie in the relevant week.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which view-count bracket will be realized; prices move as new information arrives (release timing, promotion, competing content, and reported view numbers). Use the market page to see the mapping of prices to outcomes and to monitor updates.
The market's official close date is listed on the contract page; as of now it is TBD. The winning outcome will be determined after the week in question using the data source and reporting window defined in the contract.
Settlement uses the specific data source and metric named in the market’s rules (for example, a Netflix report, Nielsen, or another tracker). Because platforms have changed reporting methods before, check the contract for the precise source and view definition that will be applied.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined view-count bracket displayed on the event page; consult that outcome list on the market contract to see the exact numeric boundaries for each bracket.
Watch official Netflix Top 10 updates and press releases, third-party trackers that report rankings, social-media virality and trending activity, major marketing pushes or star appearances, and any competing content releases or platform outages.
Yes—if the designated data source revises numbers or delays publication, that can affect the reported totals; markets settle according to the contract’s dispute and resolution procedures, so review those rules to understand how such cases are handled.