| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 18 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 6 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 12 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 15 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 40 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 50 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 35 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 9 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 25 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 30 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 21 million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the weekly view count bucket for whatever ranks as the #1 movie on Netflix for the designated week. It matters because weekly top-movie view totals are a concise signal of audience interest and can affect industry perception, marketing decisions, and subsequent platform promotion.
Netflix publishes regular audience metrics and a Top 10 list that determine which title is labeled #1 during a given reporting period; different titles hit #1 with wide variation in visibility depending on release timing and promotion. Historically, view totals for the weekly top title can swing dramatically from week to week based on new releases, franchise strength, and external events like holidays or awards news; this market translates those uncertainties into discrete outcome buckets.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations about which view-count bucket the #1 movie will fall into for the week; higher-priced outcomes indicate stronger market belief, not guarantees. Prices update as new information arrives (e.g., release schedules, early performance indicators, promotional pushes), so use them as a dynamic signal rather than a fixed forecast.
The market will resolve according to the data source and resolution rules specified on the market page; that typically points to Netflix’s publicly reported weekly metrics or its Top 10 reporting, so check the market description for the precise source used for settlement.
The exact weekly timeframe (start and end timestamps) is defined in the market’s rules on the trading page; because closure is listed as TBD, consult the market page for the definitive week window and any timezone conventions prior to trading.
Whether the count is global or territorial is specified in the market’s resolution rules; many markets use global totals but some use a specific territory—verify the market’s settlement criteria before placing trades.
Tie-break procedures, if any, are laid out in the market’s resolution policy; common approaches include using the title listed as #1 in the source’s official ranking or following an explicit tie-resolution clause—check the market’s rules for the exact method.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific view-count range for the week; choose the bucket you believe will contain the official reported total for the #1 movie. Consider recent trends, early indicators (trailers, pre-release buzz), and platform promotion when assessing which adjacent bucket is most plausible.