| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 35 million | 99% | 96¢ | 99¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| At least 30 million | 65% | 87¢ | 99¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| At least 9 million | 96% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $974 | Trade → |
| At least 25 million | 99% | 96¢ | 100¢ | — | $890 | Trade → |
| At least 12 million | 98% | 94¢ | 100¢ | — | $882 | Trade → |
| At least 21 million | 98% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $514 | Trade → |
| At least 15 million | 94% | 95¢ | 100¢ | — | $317 | Trade → |
| At least 6 million | 96% | 96¢ | 100¢ | — | $221 | Trade → |
| At least 40 million | 7% | 3¢ | 98¢ | — | $125 | Trade → |
| At least 50 million | 10% | 0¢ | 10¢ | — | $96 | Trade → |
| At least 18 million | 75% | 94¢ | 100¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
This market asks which view-count range the #1 movie on Netflix will register during a particular week; it matters because it captures market expectations about a film's short-term streaming demand and visibility.
Netflix's weekly top lists and how they report viewing (for example, via hours viewed or view counts) have evolved, and top-movie totals can swing significantly from week to week based on release strategy and audience interest. Historical patterns show that franchise releases, global launches, and coordinated marketing pushes tend to drive the largest weekly totals, while measurement method changes and competing content can shift comparisons across weeks.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of which view-count bucket is most likely to be realized given available information; traders update prices as new signals arrive (trailers, reviews, placement on the platform, competing releases).
The market settles according to the metric and data source defined in the event's contract on KALSHI; consult the contract description on the market page for whether it uses Netflix's published weekly figures, view-hours, or another official measure.
Settlement timing and the exact weekly window (start and end times, time zone) are specified in the market's contract; because the close is listed as TBD, check the market page for the posted cutoff and final settlement schedule.
The 11 outcomes correspond to discrete view-count buckets set by the market creator; each outcome is a different range of possible weekly views for the #1 movie—see the market description for the exact boundaries of each bucket.
Immediate drivers include new marketing pushes (major trailers or ad buys), platform placement updates (featured spots or trending placement), sudden critical acclaim or awards buzz, surprise release schedule changes, and rival releases that compete for viewers.
Historical weekly top-view counts provide context on typical ranges for similar titles and seasonal effects, but comparisons should be made cautiously because differences in release strategy, geography, and any changes in Netflix's reporting methodology can limit direct comparability.