| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 6 million | 6% | 1¢ | 5¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| At least 12 million | 10% | 1¢ | 10¢ | — | $229 | Trade → |
| At least 21 million | 2% | 0¢ | 9¢ | — | $200 | Trade → |
| At least 18 million | 2% | 0¢ | 69¢ | — | $200 | Trade → |
| At least 9 million | 3% | 1¢ | 67¢ | — | $100 | Trade → |
| At least 15 million | 2% | 0¢ | 44¢ | — | $66 | Trade → |
| At least 35 million | 0% | 0¢ | 12¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 40 million | 0% | 0¢ | 11¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 30 million | 0% | 0¢ | 39¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 25 million | 0% | 0¢ | 60¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| At least 50 million | 0% | 0¢ | 4¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the number-of-views bucket for whatever title finishes as the #1 movie on Netflix during the specified week. Outcomes matter to studios, talent, and analysts because weekly top-tier streaming performance influences licensing, publicity, and sequel decisions.
Netflix publishes weekly top-movie rankings and associated viewing metrics, but the platform has changed how it reports success over time, so direct historical comparisons can be inconsistent. This event resolves based on the data source and measurement specified by the contract (see event details for whether the measure is global or regional and whether it uses Netflix's current 'views' or another metric).
Market odds aggregate participants' expectations about which view-range outcome is most likely for the #1 movie that week and update as new information arrives. Use the market as a real-time signal of collective judgement about demand and momentum for the top title, not as a guaranteed forecast.
Resolution follows the measurement and data source specified in the contract. Check the event details to see whether the market uses Netflix’s publicly posted weekly view count, hours-watched, or another Netflix metric; the market will resolve to whatever metric the contract names.
The event page shows the market close as TBD; when the market closes it will resolve based on the week defined in the contract and the corresponding Netflix weekly report as published via the contract’s source (see the contract terms for exact start/end timestamps and the resolution schedule).
That depends on the contract’s specification. Some markets use Netflix’s global top rankings while others use specific regional charts; check the event details to confirm which geography the outcome refers to.
Ties and edge cases are resolved according to the contract’s stated dispute or tie-break rules and the designated data source’s official reporting; consult the contract rules on the event page for the exact tie-resolution procedure.
Watch Netflix feature placements, major marketing pushes, surprise drops or release date shifts, high-profile reviews or social-media virality, and competing platform releases or major news events that alter viewing patterns—any of these can materially shift week-to-week view totals for the top title.