| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,000,000 - 2,999,999 | 14% | 7¢ | 9¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 1,000,000 - 1,999,999 | 92% | 88¢ | 90¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 999,999 or below | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4,000,000 - 4,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 14,000,000 - 14,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 20,000,000 or above | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 18,000,000 - 18,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5,000,000 - 5,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 15,000,000 - 15,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 9,000,000 - 9,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 10,000,000 - 10,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 17,000,000 - 17,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 11,000,000 - 11,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6,000,000 - 6,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 13,000,000 - 13,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7,000,000 - 7,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 19,000,000 - 19,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 16,000,000 - 16,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 12,000,000 - 12,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 8,000,000 - 8,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 7¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3,000,000 - 3,999,999 | 0% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many streams the top song on Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA will have on Mar 4, 2026, and matters because it captures expectations about the scale of a single-day streaming peak for the U.S. market on that date.
Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA ranks tracks by U.S. streams for each calendar date; the top position on Mar 4, 2026 will reflect cumulative listening across Spotify accounts in the U.S. on that day. Stream totals for a top song vary with release timing, playlist placement, artist activity, and viral momentum, so historical peaks and off-cycle days both inform expectations. The market provides a way to compare collective forecasts about that single-day streaming outcome.
Market prices reflect how traders collectively expect the stream-count bucket for the top song to resolve on Mar 4, 2026; interpret them as relative market consensus signals rather than fixed predictions.
The market resolves to whatever Spotify's official Daily Top Songs USA chart reports for the date Mar 4, 2026; check the market page for the platform's stated resolution rules and timing, since the market close is listed as TBD.
Each of the 21 outcomes corresponds to a predetermined stream-count bucket that covers a range of possible top-song totals; view the market page for the exact bucket boundaries that define each outcome.
Spotify ranks tracks by the number of U.S. streams during the chart day and lists the track with the highest U.S. stream total for that date as the top song; final determination follows Spotify's internal counting and charting rules.
Yes—whether streams are aggregated under a single listing or counted separately depends on Spotify's metadata and grouping policies; some versions may be combined while others remain distinct, so check Spotify's track metadata if this is a potential factor.
Late-breaking factors include surprise single releases or remixes, major playlist additions, viral social-media moments, large-scale promotional pushes (e.g., televised performances), or platform reporting anomalies; any of these can shift single-day stream totals quickly.