| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 3 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 11 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 5 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 0 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 13 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 15 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 8 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 9 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 2 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 7 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 4 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 16 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 14 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 12 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 1 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Exactly 6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many Academy Awards (Oscars) the film "Sinners" will win. It matters because Oscar outcomes affect a film's commercial prospects, industry reputation, and the careers of its cast and crew.
The Academy Awards are determined by voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and are the culmination of the annual awards season, which includes festival premieres, critics' awards, and guild ballots that shape momentum. A film's awards trajectory is influenced by its release strategy, critical reception, and the intensity of its awards campaign; historical patterns show that nomination breadth and early-season wins often correlate with stronger Oscar performance. For this specific market, official Academy results and any post-nomination developments (campaigning, controversies, or rule changes) are the primary drivers of outcome changes.
Market odds represent the collective expectations of traders about how many Oscars "Sinners" will ultimately win and will move as new information arrives (nominations, other awards, Academy announcements). Use the market as a real-time summary of consensus sentiment rather than a definitive forecast; verify final resolution details against the exchange's contract rules and the Academy's official announcements.
The market resolves based on the official Academy Awards results for the eligible awards year; settlement occurs after the Academy announces the winners for that ceremony. Check the exchange's contract page for the exact resolution procedure and any cutoffs if the market has a specific close date.
Wins credited to the film and its eligible contributors at the Academy Awards (e.g., acting, directing, screenplay, and technical categories tied to the film) are counted toward the film's total, per the exchange's resolution rules. Honorary awards or awards not officially listed as wins for the film are typically excluded; consult the market's rulebook if there is ambiguity.
Nominations define the maximum number of categories the film can win and also signal industry recognition; films with nominations across both major and technical categories have more paths to multiple wins. The prestige of nominated categories matters because some categories are historically more competitive or vote-splitting than others.
Yes — wins or losses at precursor awards provide information about voter sentiment and can change the market's expectations, since many Academy voters pay attention to guild and critics' outcomes. However, those results do not directly determine the Academy's outcome and should be seen as indicators rather than guarantees.
The market follows the Academy's official, final results for the ceremony year. If the Academy announces a tie, both winners are recorded as winners; if a nomination or win is later disqualified or reassigned by the Academy, the exchange will resolve the contract according to its published rules and the Academy's final statements. For specifics, review the exchange's dispute and resolution policies.