| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 12 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 13 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 14 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 15 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 16 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 18 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many SpaceX launches will occur during the month of March; the result is a real-time indicator of SpaceX’s operational tempo and commercial and regulatory activity. It matters because launch cadence affects customers, supply chains, and broader space-industry capacity planning.
SpaceX runs a high-frequency launch program that mixes Starlink flights, commercial rideshares, government missions, and vehicle tests; monthly totals can vary widely based on manifest clustering, vehicle availability, and range access. Recent years have seen faster turnaround on reused boosters and growth in Starlink launches, but weather, payload readiness, range scheduling, and regulatory actions remain common sources of variability.
Market prices aggregate traders’ expectations about manifest changes, weather risk, and operational constraints; they update as new information (notices, scrubs, or regulatory updates) arrives. Use the market as a summary of current expectations, not a fixed forecast.
Counts typically include SpaceX-operated launches that achieve liftoff within the calendar month as defined by the market rules; consult the event’s resolution language to confirm the exact cutoff (UTC or local time) and any operator/payload exclusions.
Only a successful liftoff that occurs within March will count for this event; a scrubbed attempt that lifts off in April would be counted in April unless the market’s resolution says otherwise—always check the contract language.
Whether a test flight counts depends on the event’s definition; some markets include any SpaceX liftoff while others limit to orbital or commercial missions. Verify the event’s inclusion criteria to see if test flights are treated as launches for settlement.
Markets use a specific time standard (often UTC) to determine dates; a launch that lifts off before or after that official cutoff will be allocated to the corresponding calendar day and month per the market’s rules, so check which time zone the event uses for resolution.
Resolution generally relies on publicly available authoritative sources such as SpaceX press releases and manifest updates, range authority notices (NOTAMs or range reports), FAA or licensing statements, and satellite-tracking/space-track confirmations; the event’s rules should list the primary sources for settlement.