| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 120 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 140 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 160 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 170 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 180 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 190 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 200 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 210 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many launches SpaceX will conduct during the calendar year 2026. The outcome reflects SpaceX's operational tempo and is watched by investors, customers, and competitors as a signal of demand and execution.
SpaceX has scaled launch operations over the past decade through rapid reuse of Falcon boosters and development of Starship, building a large manifest of commercial, government, and rideshare missions. Ongoing vehicle testing, regulatory reviews, pad and range availability, and customer scheduling influence how many missions the company can complete in a given year. 2026 will be shaped by the status of Starship development, Falcon production rates, and any backlog from prior years.
Market prices aggregate traders' views about expected launch counts and update as new information (manifests, test results, delays) arrives. Use the market as a dynamic barometer of expectations, and consult official event resolution rules for what counts toward the final result.
Count rules are set by the market's official resolution criteria; in practice a 'launch' typically means a SpaceX vehicle liftoff attempt that occurs within the 2026 calendar year. Check the event's resolution page for any special inclusions or exclusions.
In most market resolutions, only launches that meet the defined launch attempt criteria are counted; high‑altitude test hops or static fires are often excluded unless the event specifies they count. Refer to the event's resolution details to confirm.
Only liftoffs that actually occur during calendar year 2026 count. A scrub that results in a liftoff in 2027 would not contribute to the 2026 total under standard counting conventions.
Yes. The market counts launches conducted by SpaceX regardless of payload owner, so rideshare and commercial, civil, and government payloads on the same flight generally contribute to the single launch tally.
The market organizer divided possible launch counts into eight mutually exclusive outcome buckets (each representing a specific count or range). Read the outcome labels on the market page to map each bucket to the corresponding number-of-launches range.