| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above 120 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 130 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 140 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 150 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 160 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| above 170 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many Boeing commercial aircraft will be delivered to customers during Q1; delivery counts matter because they directly affect Boeing's revenue recognition, cash flow, and signals about production and regulatory health.
Boeing deliveries have been influenced in recent years by the 737 MAX grounding and recertification, 787 production pauses, and post‑pandemic supply‑chain constraints, producing variability in quarterly output. Airlines and lessors also manage acceptance timing, and regulatory or quality holds can delay official transfers, so delivery tallies reflect both factory output and customer acceptance.
Market prices represent the collective expectations of traders about the announced Q1 delivery total; use them as a real‑time sentiment indicator rather than a fixed forecast, and consult the market contract for exact settlement rules.
Q1 refers to the calendar quarter from January 1 through March 31; a delivery is typically counted on the date of formal customer acceptance or the date Boeing records the transfer in its delivery log. Settlement follows the contract’s definition, so check the market page for final rules on cutoff and timezones.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive delivery range or exact count interval as defined by the market contract. Traders should open the specific outcome definitions on the KALSHI event page to see the numeric boundaries that determine which outcome settles.
The count normally covers Boeing commercial jet deliveries to airlines and leasing companies across commercial models (e.g., 737, 787, 777, etc.) and excludes defense/military transfers unless the contract specifies otherwise; confirm the contract text for any model or customer exclusions.
Primary sources are Boeing’s monthly delivery statements and any Boeing investor relations releases, followed by airline or lessor announcements and industry trackers (e.g., Cirium). Because companies may update or reconcile counts later, initial reports can be revised.
No — deliveries generally require formal acceptance and transfer of title; if acceptance is withheld due to a regulatory hold or quality dispute, the aircraft is not counted as a delivery until the company records it as delivered per the contract’s settlement criteria.