| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Choosin' Texas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Man I Need | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| I Just Might | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ordinary | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Golden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Stateside | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Opalite | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| The Fate Of Ophelia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| So Easy (To Fall In Love) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| American Girls | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| SWIM | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Elizabeth Taylor | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which recording will be listed as the Billboard Hot 100 #1 on the chart dated Apr 11, 2026. A Billboard #1 is a widely watched measure of commercial success and cultural impact in the U.S. music market.
The Billboard Hot 100 ranks songs using a combination of streaming activity, digital and physical sales, and radio airplay, with methodology maintained by Billboard and its data partner. Release timing, major promotional pushes, viral moments, and radio adds all influence weekly chart movement, so the Apr 11, 2026 chart will reflect commercial activity during the tracking week immediately preceding that chart date. Trends in 2026 — including playlist placement, short-form-video virality, and remix strategies — continue to shape which songs can reach or return to #1.
Market odds aggregate traders' current beliefs about which candidate will top the Apr 11 chart and update as new information arrives; treat prices as a consensus signal rather than a guarantee.
The Apr 11 chart reflects the consumption period immediately prior to that chart date; typically streaming and sales are measured on a Friday–Thursday cycle while radio airplay follows a slightly different window (consult Billboard's published schedule for the exact ranges for this specific chart).
Each outcome corresponds to a specific candidate recording that could be #1 on the Apr 11, 2026 chart (sometimes including an 'other' option); only one outcome will resolve as the actual #1, so they are mutually exclusive for settlement purposes.
Yes — songs can and do return to #1 when they regain sufficient streaming, sales, or airplay momentum due to remixes, renewed promotion, viral trends, or other consumption spikes.
Billboard compiles on-demand and programmed streaming totals, digital and physical sales, and monitored radio airplay to rank songs; the relative contribution of each source is part of Billboard's methodology as implemented by its data partner.
The market close is listed as TBD — Kalshi will announce the specific close time; in general, markets for chart outcomes often close either after the tracking week ends or shortly before Billboard publishes the chart, so monitor the platform for the official close and watch indicators like midweek streaming reports, radio add lists, playlist placements, and social-media momentum for late information.